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New Castle, DE · ZIP 19720 · Census Tract 10003015200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$221K
Downside (P10)
$188K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$225K
+2% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$290K
+31% by 2030
Base case: +2% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +31%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $157K | $155K | $158K | $159K | $163K | $161K | $160K | $184K | $193K | $218K | $221K | $221K | $224K | $225K |
| YoY Change | -1.1% | +1.8% | +1.0% | +2.2% | -1.0% | -1.1% | +15.0% | +4.8% | +13.4% | +1.3% | -0.1% | +1.5% | +0.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $191K | $186K | $188K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $249K | $287K | $290K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$191K to $249K
26.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$188K to $290K
45.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Castle · 19720 · (Tract 152) | $221K | $225K | +2.0% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000200) | $216K | $249K | +15.0% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 002700) | $226K | $244K | +7.8% | |
| Wilmington (Tract 001400) | $218K | $234K | +7.4% | |
| New Castle (Tract 015802) | $221K | $235K | +6.3% | |
| New Castle (Tract 014909) | $221K | $231K | +5.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Castle · 19720 · (Tract 152) | $221K | $225K | +2.0% | |
| Wilmington | $260K | $316K | +21.6% | |
| Middletown-Odessa | $464K | $555K | +19.7% | |
| Brandywine | $394K | $464K | +17.6% | |
| Brookside | $272K | $317K | +16.7% | |
| New Castle | $279K | $325K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Castle · 19720 · (Tract 152) | $221K | $225K | $102K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000601) | $153K | $158K | $100K | |
| New Castle | $167K | $179K | $88K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000900) | $114K | $128K | $74K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000602) | $154K | $174K | $72K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 002900) | $100K | $112K | $46K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.