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New Castle, DE · ZIP 19711 · Census Tract 10003013506 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$599K
Downside (P10)
$508K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$666K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$831K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $446K | $447K | $449K | $456K | $453K | $448K | $458K | $508K | $573K | $588K | $599K | $609K | $624K | $666K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$152,107 | -$151,407 | -$149,207 | -$142,507 | -$146,007 | -$150,907 | -$141,007 | -$90,807 | -$26,007 | -$10,507 | +$10,801 | +$25,523 | +$67,838 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -25.4% | -25.3% | -24.9% | -23.8% | -24.4% | -25.2% | -23.6% | -15.2% | -4.3% | -1.8% | +1.8% | +4.3% | +11.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $501K | $508K | $508K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $744K | $783K | $831K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$501K to $744K
39.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$508K to $831K
48.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Star | $602K | $666K | +10.7% | |
| Middletown-Odessa (Tract 016609) | $586K | $672K | +14.7% | |
| North Star | $579K | $632K | +9.2% | |
| Hockessin | $603K | $656K | +8.9% | |
| Middletown-Odessa (Tract 016612) | $552K | $598K | +8.3% | |
| Red Lion | $559K | $605K | +8.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Star | $602K | $666K | +10.7% | |
| Wilmington | $260K | $316K | +21.6% | |
| Middletown-Odessa | $464K | $555K | +19.7% | |
| Brandywine | $394K | $464K | +17.6% | |
| Brookside | $272K | $317K | +16.7% | |
| New Castle | $279K | $325K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Star | $602K | $666K | $323K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000601) | $153K | $158K | $100K | |
| New Castle | $167K | $179K | $88K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000900) | $114K | $128K | $74K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000602) | $154K | $174K | $72K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 002900) | $100K | $112K | $46K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
New Castle, DE · ZIP 19711 · Census Tract 10003013506 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$599K
Downside (P10)
$508K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$666K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$831K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $446K | $447K | $449K | $456K | $453K | $448K | $458K | $508K | $573K | $588K | $599K | $609K | $624K | $666K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$152,107 | -$151,407 | -$149,207 | -$142,507 | -$146,007 | -$150,907 | -$141,007 | -$90,807 | -$26,007 | -$10,507 | +$10,801 | +$25,523 | +$67,838 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -25.4% | -25.3% | -24.9% | -23.8% | -24.4% | -25.2% | -23.6% | -15.2% | -4.3% | -1.8% | +1.8% | +4.3% | +11.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $501K | $508K | $508K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $744K | $783K | $831K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$501K to $744K
39.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$508K to $831K
48.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Star | $602K | $666K | +10.7% | |
| Middletown-Odessa (Tract 016609) | $586K | $672K | +14.7% | |
| North Star | $579K | $632K | +9.2% | |
| Hockessin | $603K | $656K | +8.9% | |
| Middletown-Odessa (Tract 016612) | $552K | $598K | +8.3% | |
| Red Lion | $559K | $605K | +8.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Star | $602K | $666K | +10.7% | |
| Wilmington | $260K | $316K | +21.6% | |
| Middletown-Odessa | $464K | $555K | +19.7% | |
| Brandywine | $394K | $464K | +17.6% | |
| Brookside | $272K | $317K | +16.7% | |
| New Castle | $279K | $325K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Star | $602K | $666K | $323K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000601) | $153K | $158K | $100K | |
| New Castle | $167K | $179K | $88K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000900) | $114K | $128K | $74K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 000602) | $154K | $174K | $72K | |
| Wilmington (Tract 002900) | $100K | $112K | $46K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
