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Bay, FL · ZIP 32466 · Census Tract 12005000401 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$127K
Downside (P10)
$105K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$135K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$207K
+63% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +63%. The model forecasts this with 59% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $85K | $92K | $106K | $102K | $126K | $127K | $131K | $137K | $135K |
| YoY Change | +7.7% | +15.4% | -4.2% | +23.6% | +0.8% | +3.7% | +4.3% | -1.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $109K | $109K | $105K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $159K | $182K | $207K |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market, indicating lower confidence. Short-term confidence is moderate but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$109K to $159K
38.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$105K to $207K
75.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynn Haven | $128K | $135K | +5.4% | |
| Panama City (Tract 002000) | $171K | $190K | +10.9% | |
| Panama City (Tract 000803) | $176K | $189K | +7.8% | |
| Panama City (Tract 001700) | $169K | $180K | +6.5% | |
| Youngstown | $124K | $130K | +5.0% | |
| Panama City (Tract 001800) | $166K | $173K | +4.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynn Haven | $128K | $135K | +5.4% | |
| Panama City Beaches | $464K | $548K | +18.0% | |
| Lynn Haven | $364K | $426K | +16.8% | |
| Panama City Beach | $492K | $564K | +14.5% | |
| Callaway | $237K | $270K | +13.8% | |
| Panama City | $417K | $469K | +12.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lynn Haven | $128K | $135K | $102K | |
| Panama City (Tract 000803) | $176K | $189K | $95K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001800) | $166K | $173K | $95K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001000) | $198K | $216K | $92K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001700) | $169K | $180K | $75K | |
| Youngstown | $124K | $130K | $73K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.