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Bay, FL · ZIP 32404 · Census Tract 12005000806 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$315K
Downside (P10)
$276K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$354K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$483K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $144K | $151K | $158K | $175K | $181K | $206K | $210K | $254K | $274K | $323K | $315K | $334K | $351K | $354K |
| YoY Change | +4.6% | +4.7% | +10.6% | +3.1% | +14.3% | +1.8% | +21.0% | +7.6% | +17.9% | -2.5% | +6.1% | +5.0% | +1.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $274K | $285K | $276K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $400K | $424K | $483K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$274K to $400K
37.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$276K to $483K
58.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama City | $321K | $354K | +10.5% | |
| Lynn Haven (Tract 001404) | $298K | $327K | +9.7% | |
| Southport | $296K | $320K | +8.1% | |
| Panama City (Tract 000500) | $329K | $348K | +5.9% | |
| Lynn Haven (Tract 001403) | $303K | $314K | +3.6% | |
| Panama City (Tract 001301) | $330K | $330K | +0.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama City | $321K | $354K | +10.5% | |
| Panama City Beaches | $464K | $548K | +18.0% | |
| Lynn Haven | $364K | $426K | +16.8% | |
| Panama City Beach | $492K | $564K | +14.5% | |
| Callaway | $237K | $270K | +13.8% | |
| Panama City | $417K | $469K | +12.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panama City | $321K | $354K | $207K | |
| Panama City (Tract 000803) | $176K | $189K | $95K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001800) | $166K | $173K | $95K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001000) | $198K | $216K | $92K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001700) | $169K | $180K | $75K | |
| Youngstown | $124K | $130K | $73K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.