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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Bay, FL · ZIP 32408 · Census Tract 12005002604 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$350K
Downside (P10)
$276K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$378K
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$508K
+45% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $199K | $192K | $203K | $205K | $205K | $220K | $230K | $259K | $310K | $343K | $350K | $357K | $370K | $378K | $356K |
| YoY Change | -3.3% | +5.7% | +1.0% | +0.1% | +7.3% | +4.5% | +12.5% | +19.5% | +10.7% | +2.1% | +2.0% | +3.4% | +2.2% | -5.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $299K | $285K | $276K | $320K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $410K | $453K | $508K | $399K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$299K to $410K
31.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$320K to $399K
22.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper Grand Lagoon | $345K | $378K | +9.4% | |
| Lynn Haven | $364K | $426K | +16.8% | |
| Upper Grand Lagoon | $363K | $394K | +8.4% | |
| Panama City Beaches (Tract 002607) | $367K | $395K | +7.6% | |
| Panama City Beaches (Tract 002713) | $347K | $365K | +5.1% | |
| Panama City | $330K | $330K | +0.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper Grand Lagoon | $345K | $378K | +9.4% | |
| Panama City Beaches | $464K | $548K | +18.0% | |
| Lynn Haven | $364K | $426K | +16.8% | |
| Panama City Beach | $492K | $564K | +14.5% | |
| Callaway | $237K | $270K | +13.8% | |
| Panama City | $417K | $469K | +12.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper Grand Lagoon | $345K | $378K | $232K | |
| Panama City (Tract 000803) | $176K | $189K | $95K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001800) | $166K | $173K | $95K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001000) | $198K | $216K | $92K | |
| Panama City (Tract 001700) | $169K | $180K | $75K | |
| Youngstown | $124K | $130K | $73K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.