What is the home price forecast for Kissimmee · 34746 · (Tract 415.1)?

Homecastr forecasts Kissimmee · 34746 · (Tract 415.1) median home values at $396,032 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 7.8%.

How confident is the Kissimmee · 34746 · (Tract 415.1) forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $346,024 (downside) to $652,510 (upside), with a spread of 72% of median.

Kissimmee · 34746 · (Tract 415.1) Home Price Forecast

Osceola, FL · ZIP 34746 · Census Tract 12097041501 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$396K

Downside (P10)

$346K

-13% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$427K

+8% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$653K

+65% by 2030

Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +65%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar Osceola markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$262K	$281K	$349K	$391K	$399K	$396K	$402K	$422K	$427K	$417K
YoY Change		+7.3%	+24.1%	+12.1%	+2.0%	-0.8%	+1.6%	+4.8%	+1.3%	-2.4%
Downside (P10)							$350K	$338K	$346K	$369K
Upside (P90)							$536K	$602K	$653K	$469K

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight and remain tight through the full horizon.

1-Year Spread

$350K to $536K

46.3% of median

5-Year Spread

$369K to $469K

24.0% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +5.2% · Spread: 24%

·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Kissimmee · 34746 · (Tract 415.1)	$401K	$427K	+6.5%
St. Cloud	$388K	$416K	+7.2%
St. Cloud	$404K	$423K	+4.6%
South and East Osceola	$386K	$439K	+13.7%
Kissimmee	$384K	$412K	+7.2%
St. Cloud	$384K	$419K	+9.2%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Kissimmee · 34746 · (Tract 415.1)	$401K	$427K	+6.5%
St. Cloud	$480K	$562K	+17.2%
Poinciana	$294K	$344K	+16.9%
St. Cloud	$372K	$434K	+16.8%
Kissimmee	$320K	$371K	+16.1%
St. Cloud	$364K	$422K	+15.8%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Kissimmee · 34746 · (Tract 415.1)	$401K	$427K	$306K
Kissimmee	$79K	$89K	$57K
St. Cloud	$203K	$223K	$96K
St. Cloud	$147K	$165K	$101K
Kissimmee	$225K	$257K	$104K
Kissimmee	$205K	$212K	$110K

Location

Kissimmee · 34746 · (Tract 415.1) on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).