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Polk, IA · ZIP 50316 · Census Tract 19153001500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$162K
Downside (P10)
$140K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$179K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$232K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $101K | $97K | $94K | $100K | $102K | $106K | $111K | $135K | $145K | $158K | $162K | $166K | $174K | $179K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$61,109 | -$64,909 | -$67,809 | -$61,809 | -$60,609 | -$56,509 | -$51,609 | -$27,009 | -$16,909 | -$4,709 | +$4,167 | +$11,323 | +$17,014 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -37.7% | -40.0% | -41.8% | -38.1% | -37.4% | -34.8% | -31.8% | -16.7% | -10.4% | -2.9% | +2.6% | +7.0% | +10.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $136K | $145K | $140K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $203K | $221K | $232K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$136K to $203K
40.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$140K to $232K
50.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines | $161K | $179K | +11.6% | |
| Delaware | $160K | $183K | +14.3% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 001100) | $164K | $183K | +11.5% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 000202) | $165K | $182K | +10.6% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 000600) | $158K | $171K | +8.1% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 000500) | $163K | $170K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines | $161K | $179K | +11.6% | |
| Urbandale | $364K | $427K | +17.2% | |
| Crocker | $381K | $445K | +17.0% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 003902) | $249K | $289K | +16.3% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004501) | $182K | $211K | +15.7% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005101) | $318K | $367K | +15.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines | $161K | $179K | $91K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004900) | $147K | $166K | $76K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004200) | $154K | $165K | $75K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005200) | $107K | $118K | $66K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 002100) | $111K | $113K | $64K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004702) | $65K | $68K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Polk, IA · ZIP 50316 · Census Tract 19153001500 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$162K
Downside (P10)
$140K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$179K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$232K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $101K | $97K | $94K | $100K | $102K | $106K | $111K | $135K | $145K | $158K | $162K | $166K | $174K | $179K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$61,109 | -$64,909 | -$67,809 | -$61,809 | -$60,609 | -$56,509 | -$51,609 | -$27,009 | -$16,909 | -$4,709 | +$4,167 | +$11,323 | +$17,014 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -37.7% | -40.0% | -41.8% | -38.1% | -37.4% | -34.8% | -31.8% | -16.7% | -10.4% | -2.9% | +2.6% | +7.0% | +10.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $136K | $145K | $140K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $203K | $221K | $232K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$136K to $203K
40.2% of median
Long-horizon band
$140K to $232K
50.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines | $161K | $179K | +11.6% | |
| Delaware | $160K | $183K | +14.3% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 001100) | $164K | $183K | +11.5% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 000202) | $165K | $182K | +10.6% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 000600) | $158K | $171K | +8.1% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 000500) | $163K | $170K | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines | $161K | $179K | +11.6% | |
| Urbandale | $364K | $427K | +17.2% | |
| Crocker | $381K | $445K | +17.0% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 003902) | $249K | $289K | +16.3% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004501) | $182K | $211K | +15.7% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005101) | $318K | $367K | +15.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Des Moines | $161K | $179K | $91K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004900) | $147K | $166K | $76K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004200) | $154K | $165K | $75K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005200) | $107K | $118K | $66K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 002100) | $111K | $113K | $64K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004702) | $65K | $68K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
