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Polk, IA · ZIP 50265 · Census Tract 19153011001 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$214K
Downside (P10)
$178K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$227K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$286K
+33% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +33%. The model forecasts this with 74% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $120K | $120K | $122K | $121K | $118K | $137K | $153K | $171K | $203K | $207K | $214K | $214K | $224K | $227K |
| YoY Change | +0.2% | +1.3% | -1.1% | -2.2% | +15.8% | +11.7% | +12.4% | +18.6% | +2.0% | +3.4% | -0.1% | +4.5% | +1.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $175K | $171K | $178K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $249K | $257K | $286K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$175K to $249K
34.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$178K to $286K
47.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Des Moines | $211K | $227K | +7.3% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 003901) | $220K | $251K | +14.5% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004502) | $219K | $246K | +12.1% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 000803) | $213K | $231K | +8.6% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 002700) | $210K | $220K | +5.0% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 002600) | $208K | $215K | +3.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Des Moines | $211K | $227K | +7.3% | |
| Urbandale | $364K | $427K | +17.2% | |
| Crocker | $381K | $445K | +17.0% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 003902) | $249K | $289K | +16.3% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004501) | $182K | $211K | +15.7% | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005101) | $318K | $367K | +15.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Des Moines | $211K | $227K | $108K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004900) | $147K | $166K | $76K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004200) | $154K | $165K | $75K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 005200) | $107K | $118K | $66K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 002100) | $111K | $113K | $64K | |
| Des Moines (Tract 004702) | $65K | $68K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.