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County 21810, KY · Census Tract 21810642763 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$276K
Downside (P10)
$257K
-7% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$387K
+40% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$537K
+95% by 2030
Base case: +40% by 2030, with a forecast range from -7% to +95%. The model forecasts this with 60% confidence.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $276K | $316K | $338K | $358K | $387K |
| YoY Change | +14.7% | +6.9% | +6.0% | +8.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $247K | $240K | $233K | $257K | |
| Upside (P90) | $398K | $424K | $481K | $537K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$247K to $398K
47.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$257K to $537K
72.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 642763 | $276K | $387K | +40.3% | |
| Tract 640862 | $277K | $400K | +44.7% | |
| Tract 642022 | $277K | $400K | +44.5% | |
| Tract 641023 | $277K | $393K | +41.9% | |
| Tract 642103 | $275K | $378K | +37.4% | |
| Tract 643005 | $276K | $366K | +32.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 642763 | $276K | $387K | +40.3% | |
| Tract 642608 | $266K | $387K | +45.5% | |
| Tract 640163 | $274K | $398K | +45.3% | |
| Tract 643047 | $267K | $388K | +45.1% | |
| Tract 640862 | $277K | $400K | +44.7% | |
| Tract 642022 | $277K | $400K | +44.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 642763 | $276K | $387K | $281K | |
| Tract 642640 | $268K | $357K | $257K | |
| Tract 641007 | $265K | $341K | $250K | |
| Tract 642064 | $268K | $363K | $249K | |
| Tract 641285 | $274K | $370K | $246K | |
| Tract 641049 | $279K | $373K | $243K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources