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Jefferson, KY · ZIP 40204 · Census Tract 21111006300 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$239K
Downside (P10)
$203K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$248K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$337K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $115K | $115K | $124K | $129K | $142K | $162K | $178K | $204K | $231K | $232K | $239K | $242K | $252K | $248K | $243K |
| YoY Change | +0.3% | +7.7% | +4.1% | +10.1% | +13.5% | +10.0% | +14.8% | +13.1% | +0.6% | +2.9% | +1.2% | +4.4% | -1.7% | -2.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $211K | $210K | $203K | $216K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $290K | $319K | $337K | $274K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$211K to $290K
33.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$216K to $274K
23.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | $236K | $248K | +4.9% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) (Tract 011506) | $238K | $264K | +10.8% | |
| Southeast Jefferson (Tract 011115) | $240K | $262K | +8.9% | |
| Southeast Jefferson (Tract 011116) | $241K | $257K | +6.6% | |
| Southeast Jefferson (Tract 011003) | $236K | $245K | +3.8% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) (Tract 011706) | $241K | $249K | +3.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | $236K | $248K | +4.9% | |
| Pond Creek | $141K | $174K | +23.1% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $149K | $181K | +21.3% | |
| Southeast Jefferson | $341K | $409K | +19.9% | |
| Louisville South | $162K | $192K | +18.5% | |
| Louisville | $249K | $292K | +17.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | $236K | $248K | $135K | |
| Louisville (Tract 000600) | $63K | $67K | $37K | |
| Louisville (Tract 001800) | $68K | $76K | $35K | |
| Louisville (Tract 002100) | $53K | $57K | $33K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.