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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Jefferson, KY · ZIP 40258 · Census Tract 21111012408 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$169K
Downside (P10)
$144K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$189K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$243K
+44% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $107K | $106K | $108K | $110K | $109K | $113K | $122K | $141K | $155K | $167K | $169K | $167K | $179K | $189K |
| YoY Change | -0.7% | +1.9% | +1.6% | -0.9% | +3.7% | +7.9% | +15.7% | +10.1% | +7.5% | +1.2% | -1.4% | +7.1% | +5.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $145K | $144K | $144K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $214K | $235K | $243K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$145K to $214K
41.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$144K to $243K
52.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $168K | $189K | +12.5% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $169K | $194K | +14.7% | |
| Shively (Tract 012501) | $168K | $187K | +11.4% | |
| Shively (Tract 012605) | $168K | $182K | +8.5% | |
| Louisville | $169K | $182K | +7.8% | |
| Shively (Tract 012603) | $169K | $177K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $168K | $189K | +12.5% | |
| Pond Creek | $141K | $174K | +23.1% | |
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $149K | $181K | +21.3% | |
| Southeast Jefferson | $341K | $409K | +19.9% | |
| Louisville South | $162K | $192K | +18.5% | |
| Louisville | $249K | $292K | +17.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) | $168K | $189K | $99K | |
| Louisville (Tract 000600) | $63K | $67K | $37K | |
| Louisville (Tract 001800) | $68K | $76K | $35K | |
| Louisville (Tract 002100) | $53K | $57K | $33K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.