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Chatham, NC · ZIP 27517 · Census Tract 37037020103 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$696K
Downside (P10)
$571K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$758K
+9% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.08M
+56% by 2030
Base case: +9% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +56%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $444K | $482K | $464K | $456K | $489K | $489K | $568K | $684K | $680K | $683K | $696K | $724K | $740K | $758K | $705K |
| YoY Change | +8.7% | -3.9% | -1.7% | +7.3% | +0.1% | +16.1% | +20.5% | -0.6% | +0.4% | +1.9% | +4.1% | +2.1% | +2.4% | -7.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $559K | $577K | $571K | $627K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $945K | $998K | $1.1M | $787K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$559K to $945K
53.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$627K to $787K
22.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams · Chapel Hill · (Tract 201.3) | $696K | $758K | +8.9% | |
| Baldwin (Tract 020105) | $554K | $635K | +14.7% | |
| Baldwin (Tract 020108) | $531K | $574K | +8.1% | |
| Williams (Tract 020704) | $606K | $652K | +7.6% | |
| Williams (Tract 020703) | $653K | $697K | +6.7% | |
| Williams (Tract 020104) | $647K | $690K | +6.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams · Chapel Hill · (Tract 201.3) | $696K | $758K | +8.9% | |
| Baldwin (Tract 020105) | $554K | $635K | +14.7% | |
| Center area | $425K | $483K | +13.5% | |
| Hadley | $529K | $597K | +12.7% | |
| Baldwin (Tract 020107) | $503K | $559K | +11.1% | |
| Albright | $267K | $293K | +9.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Williams · Chapel Hill · (Tract 201.3) | $696K | $758K | $513K | |
| Gulf area | $232K | $247K | $123K | |
| Matthews (Tract 020300) | $213K | $232K | $105K | |
| Matthews (Tract 020401) | $160K | $171K | $100K | |
| Bear Creek | $172K | $181K | $91K | |
| Matthews (Tract 020402) | $165K | $171K | $90K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.