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Durham, NC · ZIP 27713 · Census Tract 37063002026 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$351K
Downside (P10)
$317K
-10% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$398K
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$541K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -10% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $146K | $138K | $146K | $154K | $170K | $192K | $216K | $265K | $338K | $350K | $351K | $366K | $378K | $398K | $364K |
| YoY Change | -5.3% | +5.2% | +5.6% | +10.8% | +12.6% | +12.6% | +22.5% | +27.6% | +3.6% | +0.5% | +4.2% | +3.2% | +5.2% | -8.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $321K | $323K | $317K | $321K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $456K | $474K | $541K | $409K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$321K to $456K
36.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$321K to $409K
24.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham | $349K | $398K | +13.9% | |
| Durham (Tract 001706) | $354K | $408K | +15.3% | |
| Durham (Tract 002024) | $352K | $401K | +13.9% | |
| Triangle | $351K | $391K | +11.2% | |
| Durham (Tract 000102) | $344K | $382K | +10.9% | |
| Lebanon | $343K | $338K | -1.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham | $349K | $398K | +13.9% | |
| Durham (Tract 000301) | $473K | $580K | +22.6% | |
| Triangle | $419K | $486K | +16.0% | |
| Durham (Tract 001706) | $354K | $408K | +15.3% | |
| Durham (Tract 000402) | $620K | $713K | +15.0% | |
| Oak Grove | $383K | $440K | +14.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durham | $349K | $398K | $224K | |
| Oak Grove (Tract 001801) | $245K | $259K | $118K | |
| Durham (Tract 001002) | $220K | $233K | $111K | |
| Durham (Tract 001400) | $170K | $187K | $97K | |
| Oak Grove (Tract 001810) | $189K | $204K | $90K | |
| Durham (Tract 001301) | $194K | $218K | $87K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.