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Bernalillo, NM · ZIP 87114 · Census Tract 35001003600 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$358K
Downside (P10)
$316K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$396K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$539K
+51% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +51%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $282K | $274K | $289K | $290K | $273K | $247K | $307K | $312K | $338K | $359K | $358K | $362K | $373K | $396K |
| YoY Change | -2.9% | +5.5% | +0.6% | -5.9% | -9.4% | +24.2% | +1.7% | +8.2% | +6.1% | -0.2% | +1.3% | +3.0% | +6.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $314K | $326K | $316K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $464K | $518K | $539K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$314K to $464K
41.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$316K to $539K
56.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Valley | $360K | $396K | +10.0% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000401) | $356K | $394K | +10.7% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003724) | $355K | $384K | +8.3% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000109) | $361K | $414K | +14.8% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004763) | $362K | $395K | +9.1% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004745) | $362K | $397K | +9.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Valley | $360K | $396K | +10.0% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004761) | $246K | $297K | +20.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000504) | $373K | $447K | +19.7% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000203) | $305K | $365K | +19.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 001201) | $271K | $319K | +17.9% | |
| South Valley | $234K | $276K | +17.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Valley | $360K | $396K | $224K | |
| West Bernalillo | $100K | $108K | $65K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003723) | $141K | $149K | $67K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000907) | $120K | $132K | $76K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.