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Bernalillo, NM · ZIP 87111 · Census Tract 35001003726 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$696K
Downside (P10)
$590K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$748K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.04M
+49% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +49%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $411K | $414K | $474K | $489K | $495K | $494K | $554K | $649K | $670K | $692K | $696K | $726K | $733K | $748K |
| YoY Change | +0.7% | +14.6% | +3.0% | +1.2% | -0.1% | +12.1% | +17.2% | +3.2% | +3.4% | +0.5% | +4.4% | +0.9% | +2.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $610K | $599K | $590K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $884K | $969K | $1.0M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$610K to $884K
37.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$590K to $1.04M
60.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque | $699K | $748K | +7.0% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 940500) | $694K | $687K | -1.1% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003741) | $661K | $712K | +7.7% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004716) | $641K | $742K | +15.6% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003742) | $585K | $599K | +2.3% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003729) | $582K | $668K | +14.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque | $699K | $748K | +7.0% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004761) | $246K | $297K | +20.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000504) | $373K | $447K | +19.7% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000203) | $305K | $365K | +19.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 001201) | $271K | $319K | +17.9% | |
| South Valley | $234K | $276K | +17.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albuquerque | $699K | $748K | $450K | |
| West Bernalillo | $100K | $108K | $65K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003723) | $141K | $149K | $67K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000907) | $120K | $132K | $76K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.