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Bernalillo, NM · ZIP 87008 · Census Tract 35001003805 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$328K
Downside (P10)
$291K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$362K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$517K
+57% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +57%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $195K | $225K | $230K | $254K | $269K | $255K | $255K | $259K | $281K | $319K | $328K | $340K | $360K | $362K | $337K |
| YoY Change | +15.5% | +2.2% | +10.5% | +5.7% | -5.2% | +0.0% | +1.5% | +8.5% | +13.7% | +2.9% | +3.4% | +6.1% | +0.5% | -7.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $293K | $293K | $291K | $296K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $398K | $430K | $517K | $376K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$293K to $398K
31.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$296K to $376K
24.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Bernalillo | $326K | $362K | +11.2% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004720) | $329K | $353K | +7.3% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000113) | $330K | $365K | +10.7% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 001101) | $331K | $378K | +14.1% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004757) | $322K | $351K | +9.1% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003501) | $335K | $374K | +11.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Bernalillo | $326K | $362K | +11.2% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 004761) | $246K | $297K | +20.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000504) | $373K | $447K | +19.7% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000203) | $305K | $365K | +19.5% | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 001201) | $271K | $319K | +17.9% | |
| South Valley | $234K | $276K | +17.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Bernalillo | $326K | $362K | $226K | |
| West Bernalillo | $100K | $108K | $65K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 003723) | $141K | $149K | $67K | |
| Albuquerque (Tract 000907) | $120K | $132K | $76K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.