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Santa Fe, NM · ZIP 87506 · Census Tract 35049940300 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$257K
Downside (P10)
$227K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$274K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$396K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $207K | $223K | $205K | $228K | $245K | $216K | $215K | $257K | $247K | $246K | $257K | $259K | $264K | $274K |
| YoY Change | +7.7% | -7.9% | +11.3% | +7.6% | -12.2% | -0.1% | +19.6% | -4.0% | -0.2% | +4.1% | +0.8% | +2.1% | +3.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $227K | $224K | $227K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $312K | $362K | $396K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$227K to $312K
32.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$227K to $396K
61.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Fe North | $251K | $274K | +9.3% | |
| Santa Fe South | $229K | $265K | +16.2% | |
| Santa Fe North | $272K | $312K | +14.9% | |
| Santa Fe (Tract 000400) | $296K | $323K | +9.1% | |
| Santa Fe (Tract 001203) | $232K | $248K | +7.0% | |
| Santa Fe (Tract 001202) | $271K | $289K | +6.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Fe North | $251K | $274K | +9.3% | |
| Santa Fe (Tract 001103) | $427K | $506K | +18.5% | |
| Santa Fe South | $229K | $265K | +16.2% | |
| Santa Fe North (Tract 010102) | $272K | $312K | +14.9% | |
| Santa Fe (Tract 000600) | $719K | $826K | +14.8% | |
| Santa Fe North (Tract 010204) | $1.13M | $1.28M | +13.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Fe North | $251K | $274K | $169K | |
| Santa Fe South | $301K | $309K | $145K | |
| Santa Fe (Tract 001107) | $368K | $396K | $133K | |
| Santa Fe (Tract 001203) | $232K | $248K | $123K | |
| Santa Fe North | $184K | $202K | $117K | |
| Santa Fe (Tract 001205) | $172K | $187K | $114K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.