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Washoe, NV · ZIP 89511 · Census Tract 32031001011 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$930K
Downside (P10)
$779K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.05M
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.37M
+47% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $418K | $458K | $535K | $573K | $615K | $636K | $674K | $759K | $849K | $897K | $930K | $963K | $996K | $1.0M | $922K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$512,294 | -$472,094 | -$395,194 | -$357,594 | -$315,394 | -$294,394 | -$256,894 | -$171,094 | -$81,094 | -$33,794 | +$32,995 | +$65,686 | +$118,854 | -$8,827 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -55.1% | -50.7% | -42.5% | -38.4% | -33.9% | -31.6% | -27.6% | -18.4% | -8.7% | -3.6% | +3.5% | +7.1% | +12.8% | -0.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $847K | $846K | $779K | $829K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.0M |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$847K to $1.1M
29.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$829K to $1.0M
23.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reno Southwest | $916K | $1.05M | +14.6% | |
| Reno (Tract 000402) | $915K | $1.05M | +14.2% | |
| Reno (Tract 001504) | $875K | $979K | +11.9% | |
| Reno (Tract 002217) | $885K | $973K | +9.9% | |
| Reno Southeast | $870K | $894K | +2.8% | |
| Reno Southwest | $995K | $1.01M | +1.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reno Southwest | $916K | $1.05M | +14.6% | |
| Reno | $443K | $544K | +22.7% | |
| Reno Southwest | $798K | $978K | +22.5% | |
| Incline Village | $1.36M | $1.61M | +18.7% | |
| Reno North | $306K | $363K | +18.7% | |
| Sparks | $401K | $474K | +18.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reno Southwest | $916K | $1.05M | $587K | |
| Sun Valley | $257K | $268K | $124K | |
| Reno | $226K | $243K | $120K | |
| Pyramid Lake | $69K | $74K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Washoe, NV · ZIP 89511 · Census Tract 32031001011 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$930K
Downside (P10)
$779K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.05M
+13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.37M
+47% by 2030
Base case: +13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $418K | $458K | $535K | $573K | $615K | $636K | $674K | $759K | $849K | $897K | $930K | $963K | $996K | $1.0M | $922K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$512,294 | -$472,094 | -$395,194 | -$357,594 | -$315,394 | -$294,394 | -$256,894 | -$171,094 | -$81,094 | -$33,794 | +$32,995 | +$65,686 | +$118,854 | -$8,827 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -55.1% | -50.7% | -42.5% | -38.4% | -33.9% | -31.6% | -27.6% | -18.4% | -8.7% | -3.6% | +3.5% | +7.1% | +12.8% | -0.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $847K | $846K | $779K | $829K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.0M |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$847K to $1.1M
29.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$829K to $1.0M
23.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reno Southwest | $916K | $1.05M | +14.6% | |
| Reno (Tract 000402) | $915K | $1.05M | +14.2% | |
| Reno (Tract 001504) | $875K | $979K | +11.9% | |
| Reno (Tract 002217) | $885K | $973K | +9.9% | |
| Reno Southeast | $870K | $894K | +2.8% | |
| Reno Southwest | $995K | $1.01M | +1.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reno Southwest | $916K | $1.05M | +14.6% | |
| Reno | $443K | $544K | +22.7% | |
| Reno Southwest | $798K | $978K | +22.5% | |
| Incline Village | $1.36M | $1.61M | +18.7% | |
| Reno North | $306K | $363K | +18.7% | |
| Sparks | $401K | $474K | +18.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reno Southwest | $916K | $1.05M | $587K | |
| Sun Valley | $257K | $268K | $124K | |
| Reno | $226K | $243K | $120K | |
| Pyramid Lake | $69K | $74K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
