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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Washoe, NV · ZIP 89521 · Census Tract 32031002217 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$906K
Downside (P10)
$764K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$973K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.30M
+44% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +44%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $641K | $708K | $808K | $834K | $869K | $906K | $933K | $956K | $973K |
| YoY Change | +10.5% | +14.0% | +3.3% | +4.2% | +4.2% | +3.0% | +2.4% | +1.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $821K | $792K | $764K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.3M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$821K to $1.10M
29.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$764K to $1.30M
55.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reno | $885K | $973K | +9.9% | |
| Reno Southwest | $916K | $1.05M | +14.6% | |
| Reno (Tract 000402) | $915K | $1.05M | +14.2% | |
| Reno (Tract 001504) | $875K | $979K | +11.9% | |
| Reno (Tract 001015) | $847K | $903K | +6.5% | |
| Reno Southeast | $870K | $894K | +2.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reno | $885K | $973K | +9.9% | |
| Reno | $443K | $544K | +22.7% | |
| Reno Southwest | $798K | $978K | +22.5% | |
| Incline Village | $1.36M | $1.61M | +18.7% | |
| Reno North | $306K | $363K | +18.7% | |
| Sparks | $401K | $474K | +18.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reno | $885K | $973K | $540K | |
| Sun Valley | $257K | $268K | $124K | |
| Reno | $226K | $243K | $120K | |
| Pyramid Lake | $69K | $74K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.