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Nassau, NY · ZIP 11050 · Census Tract 36059301102 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.02M
Downside (P10)
$834K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.08M
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.45M
+42% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $706K | $701K | $704K | $755K | $785K | $842K | $865K | $951K | $968K | $987K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.0M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$309,935 | -$314,935 | -$312,435 | -$261,235 | -$231,235 | -$173,635 | -$151,135 | -$65,335 | -$48,435 | -$29,035 | +$35,161 | +$41,444 | +$60,933 | -$3,116 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -30.5% | -31.0% | -30.8% | -25.7% | -22.8% | -17.1% | -14.9% | -6.4% | -4.8% | -2.9% | +3.5% | +4.1% | +6.0% | -0.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $820K | $865K | $834K | $892K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.2M |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$820K to $1.2M
33.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$892K to $1.2M
27.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Hempstead | $995K | $1.08M | +8.2% | |
| Garden City (Tract 406501) | $1.01M | $1.12M | +11.1% | |
| Port Washington | $1.02M | $1.13M | +10.2% | |
| Garden City (Tract 406300) | $1.02M | $1.11M | +9.0% | |
| Manhasset Hills | $1.04M | $1.12M | +7.1% | |
| Great Neck | $1.06M | $1.09M | +2.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Hempstead | $995K | $1.08M | +8.2% | |
| West Hempstead | $703K | $832K | +18.4% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407203) | $481K | $569K | +18.4% | |
| Franklin Square | $667K | $788K | +18.1% | |
| Levittown | $588K | $692K | +17.7% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407000) | $517K | $606K | +17.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Hempstead | $995K | $1.08M | $612K | |
| Rockville Centre | $486K | $550K | $223K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407101) | $353K | $394K | $220K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406801) | $435K | $462K | $202K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406701) | $289K | $298K | $165K | |
| East Meadow | $194K | $213K | $133K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Nassau, NY · ZIP 11050 · Census Tract 36059301102 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.02M
Downside (P10)
$834K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.08M
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.45M
+42% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $706K | $701K | $704K | $755K | $785K | $842K | $865K | $951K | $968K | $987K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.0M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$309,935 | -$314,935 | -$312,435 | -$261,235 | -$231,235 | -$173,635 | -$151,135 | -$65,335 | -$48,435 | -$29,035 | +$35,161 | +$41,444 | +$60,933 | -$3,116 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -30.5% | -31.0% | -30.8% | -25.7% | -22.8% | -17.1% | -14.9% | -6.4% | -4.8% | -2.9% | +3.5% | +4.1% | +6.0% | -0.3% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $820K | $865K | $834K | $892K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.2M |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$820K to $1.2M
33.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$892K to $1.2M
27.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Hempstead | $995K | $1.08M | +8.2% | |
| Garden City (Tract 406501) | $1.01M | $1.12M | +11.1% | |
| Port Washington | $1.02M | $1.13M | +10.2% | |
| Garden City (Tract 406300) | $1.02M | $1.11M | +9.0% | |
| Manhasset Hills | $1.04M | $1.12M | +7.1% | |
| Great Neck | $1.06M | $1.09M | +2.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Hempstead | $995K | $1.08M | +8.2% | |
| West Hempstead | $703K | $832K | +18.4% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407203) | $481K | $569K | +18.4% | |
| Franklin Square | $667K | $788K | +18.1% | |
| Levittown | $588K | $692K | +17.7% | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407000) | $517K | $606K | +17.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Hempstead | $995K | $1.08M | $612K | |
| Rockville Centre | $486K | $550K | $223K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 407101) | $353K | $394K | $220K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406801) | $435K | $462K | $202K | |
| Hempstead (Tract 406701) | $289K | $298K | $165K | |
| East Meadow | $194K | $213K | $133K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
