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McIntosh, OK · ZIP 74426 · Census Tract 40091779602 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$159K
Downside (P10)
$134K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$176K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$209K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $114K | $115K | $117K | $138K | $153K | $159K | $164K | $175K | $176K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$45,418 | -$43,518 | -$41,818 | -$20,618 | -$6,118 | +$4,700 | +$16,161 | +$16,697 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -28.6% | -27.4% | -26.3% | -13.0% | -3.8% | +3.0% | +10.2% | +10.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $140K | $143K | $134K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $191K | $203K | $209K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$140K to $191K
31.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$134K to $209K
43.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Checotah | $158K | $176K | +11.0% | |
| Eufaula (Tract 780200) | $185K | $209K | +13.1% | |
| Checotah (Tract 779700) | $125K | $140K | +12.0% | |
| Checotah (Tract 780301) | $182K | $198K | +9.0% | |
| Eufaula (Tract 780100) | $122K | $127K | +4.8% | |
| Hanna area | $129K | $130K | +0.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Checotah | $158K | $176K | +11.0% | |
| Eufaula | $185K | $209K | +13.1% | |
| Checotah (Tract 779700) | $125K | $140K | +12.0% | |
| Checotah (Tract 780301) | $182K | $198K | +9.0% | |
| Checotah (Tract 780302) | $202K | $217K | +7.6% | |
| Checotah (Tract 779601) | $116K | $125K | +7.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Checotah | $158K | $176K | $76K | |
| Eufaula (Tract 780200) | $185K | $209K | $116K | |
| Hanna area | $129K | $130K | $69K | |
| Checotah (Tract 779700) | $125K | $140K | $68K | |
| Checotah (Tract 779601) | $116K | $125K | $66K | |
| Eufaula (Tract 780100) | $122K | $127K | $64K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
McIntosh, OK · ZIP 74426 · Census Tract 40091779602 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$159K
Downside (P10)
$134K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$176K
+11% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$209K
+32% by 2030
Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $114K | $115K | $117K | $138K | $153K | $159K | $164K | $175K | $176K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$45,418 | -$43,518 | -$41,818 | -$20,618 | -$6,118 | +$4,700 | +$16,161 | +$16,697 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -28.6% | -27.4% | -26.3% | -13.0% | -3.8% | +3.0% | +10.2% | +10.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $140K | $143K | $134K | |||||||
| Upside (P90) | $191K | $203K | $209K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$140K to $191K
31.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$134K to $209K
43.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Checotah | $158K | $176K | +11.0% | |
| Eufaula (Tract 780200) | $185K | $209K | +13.1% | |
| Checotah (Tract 779700) | $125K | $140K | +12.0% | |
| Checotah (Tract 780301) | $182K | $198K | +9.0% | |
| Eufaula (Tract 780100) | $122K | $127K | +4.8% | |
| Hanna area | $129K | $130K | +0.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Checotah | $158K | $176K | +11.0% | |
| Eufaula | $185K | $209K | +13.1% | |
| Checotah (Tract 779700) | $125K | $140K | +12.0% | |
| Checotah (Tract 780301) | $182K | $198K | +9.0% | |
| Checotah (Tract 780302) | $202K | $217K | +7.6% | |
| Checotah (Tract 779601) | $116K | $125K | +7.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Checotah | $158K | $176K | $76K | |
| Eufaula (Tract 780200) | $185K | $209K | $116K | |
| Hanna area | $129K | $130K | $69K | |
| Checotah (Tract 779700) | $125K | $140K | $68K | |
| Checotah (Tract 779601) | $116K | $125K | $66K | |
| Eufaula (Tract 780100) | $122K | $127K | $64K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
