What is the home price forecast for Parcel 40091779602 in Checotah?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $158,918 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 10.5%.

What is the home price forecast for Parcel 40091779602 in Checotah?

Homecastr forecasts median home values at $158,918 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 10.5%.

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Parcel 40091779602 (Checotah) Home Price Forecast | Homecastr

Parcel 40091779602, Checotah Home Price Forecast

McIntosh, OK · ZIP 74426 · Census Tract 40091779602 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026

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Current modeled value

$159K

Downside (P10)

$134K

-16% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$176K

+11% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$209K

+32% by 2030

Base case: +11% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +32%. The model forecasts this with 76% confidence.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$114K	$115K	$117K	$138K	$153K	$159K	$164K	$175K	$176K
Growth $ vs 2026	-$45,418	-$43,518	-$41,818	-$20,618	-$6,118		+$4,700	+$16,161	+$16,697
Growth % vs 2026	-28.6%	-27.4%	-26.3%	-13.0%	-3.8%		+3.0%	+10.2%	+10.5%
Downside (P10)							$140K	$143K	$134K
Upside (P90)							$191K	$203K	$209K

Forecast Confidence

76%

Moderate Confidence

The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.

Near-term band

$140K to $191K

31.5% of median

Long-horizon band

$134K to $209K

43.1% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: strong growth expected5yr expected: +10.5% · Spread: 43%

·The forecast implies steady near-term growth accelerating over the longer horizon.
·The base case is supported by strong local demand signals and a positive medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Location

Parcel 40091779602, Checotah on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).