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Marion, OR · ZIP 97301 · Census Tract 41047000200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$437K
Downside (P10)
$372K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$450K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$659K
+51% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +51%. The model forecasts this with 65% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $182K | $195K | $205K | $202K | $249K | $272K | $266K | $324K | $395K | $419K | $437K | $443K | $441K | $450K |
| YoY Change | +7.6% | +5.0% | -1.6% | +23.1% | +9.5% | -2.5% | +22.1% | +21.9% | +5.9% | +4.4% | +1.3% | -0.4% | +2.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $382K | $377K | $372K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $543K | $600K | $659K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$382K to $543K
36.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$372K to $659K
63.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salem · 97301 · (Tract 2) | $426K | $450K | +5.7% | |
| Salem (Tract 001100) | $433K | $487K | +12.5% | |
| Salem (Tract 002002) | $433K | $486K | +12.1% | |
| Salem (Tract 002502) | $433K | $480K | +10.8% | |
| Hubbard | $434K | $469K | +8.1% | |
| Salem (Tract 002202) | $437K | $444K | +1.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salem · 97301 · (Tract 2) | $426K | $450K | +5.7% | |
| Woodburn | $369K | $454K | +23.0% | |
| Salem (Tract 001607) | $337K | $404K | +20.0% | |
| Stayton | $413K | $483K | +17.0% | |
| Salem (Tract 002400) | $631K | $728K | +15.4% | |
| Salem (Tract 001701) | $358K | $408K | +13.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salem · 97301 · (Tract 2) | $426K | $450K | $286K | |
| Woodburn (Tract 010307) | $303K | $341K | $178K | |
| Salem (Tract 001702) | $341K | $366K | $176K | |
| Salem (Tract 001605) | $282K | $298K | $159K | |
| Woodburn (Tract 010308) | $321K | $353K | $140K | |
| Salem (Tract 001803) | $69K | $74K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.