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Marion, OR · ZIP 97302 · Census Tract 41047001000 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$350K
Downside (P10)
$292K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$362K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$512K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +46%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $95K | $99K | $99K | $105K | $127K | $138K | $149K | $173K | $214K | $340K | $350K | $350K | $358K | $362K |
| YoY Change | +3.7% | +0.0% | +6.2% | +21.0% | +8.7% | +7.8% | +16.3% | +23.7% | +59.3% | +2.8% | +0.0% | +2.3% | +1.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $301K | $301K | $292K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $456K | $493K | $512K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$301K to $456K
44.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$292K to $512K
60.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salem · 97302 · (Tract 10) | $346K | $362K | +4.5% | |
| Salem (Tract 001802) | $349K | $395K | +13.1% | |
| Salem (Tract 000703) | $344K | $387K | +12.5% | |
| Salem (Tract 000900) | $350K | $392K | +12.0% | |
| Salem (Tract 001801) | $346K | $374K | +8.1% | |
| Salem (Tract 000501) | $353K | $379K | +7.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salem · 97302 · (Tract 10) | $346K | $362K | +4.5% | |
| Woodburn | $369K | $454K | +23.0% | |
| Salem (Tract 001607) | $337K | $404K | +20.0% | |
| Stayton | $413K | $483K | +17.0% | |
| Salem (Tract 002400) | $631K | $728K | +15.4% | |
| Salem (Tract 001701) | $358K | $408K | +13.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salem · 97302 · (Tract 10) | $346K | $362K | $219K | |
| Woodburn (Tract 010307) | $303K | $341K | $178K | |
| Salem (Tract 001702) | $341K | $366K | $176K | |
| Salem (Tract 001605) | $282K | $298K | $159K | |
| Woodburn (Tract 010308) | $321K | $353K | $140K | |
| Salem (Tract 001803) | $69K | $74K | $47K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.