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Brazoria, TX · ZIP 77511 · Census Tract 48039661700 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$271K
Downside (P10)
$231K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$286K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$384K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $117K | $122K | $127K | $143K | $155K | $162K | $175K | $189K | $231K | $253K | $271K | $278K | $289K | $286K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$154,506 | -$149,206 | -$143,606 | -$128,506 | -$116,006 | -$109,406 | -$96,306 | -$81,706 | -$40,106 | -$17,806 | +$7,065 | +$17,731 | +$15,170 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -57.0% | -55.1% | -53.0% | -47.4% | -42.8% | -40.4% | -35.5% | -30.1% | -14.8% | -6.6% | +2.6% | +6.5% | +5.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $234K | $235K | $231K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $329K | $362K | $384K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$234K to $329K
34.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$231K to $384K
53.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin-Pearland | $260K | $286K | +9.9% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 661502) | $272K | $302K | +11.1% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 661501) | $276K | $306K | +11.0% | |
| Brazosport | $275K | $300K | +9.3% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 661601) | $272K | $294K | +8.2% | |
| Lake Jackson | $269K | $288K | +7.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin-Pearland | $260K | $286K | +9.9% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660615) | $297K | $357K | +20.1% | |
| Pearland | $334K | $397K | +18.9% | |
| Angleton | $399K | $466K | +16.7% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660707) | $342K | $397K | +16.0% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660501) | $368K | $420K | +14.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin-Pearland | $260K | $286K | $153K | |
| Clute | $154K | $163K | $86K | |
| Alvin-Pearland | $165K | $175K | $86K | |
| Alvin | $158K | $167K | $85K | |
| Brazosport | $146K | $162K | $67K | |
| Freeport | $127K | $138K | $50K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Brazoria, TX · ZIP 77511 · Census Tract 48039661700 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$271K
Downside (P10)
$231K
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$286K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$384K
+42% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +42%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $117K | $122K | $127K | $143K | $155K | $162K | $175K | $189K | $231K | $253K | $271K | $278K | $289K | $286K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$154,506 | -$149,206 | -$143,606 | -$128,506 | -$116,006 | -$109,406 | -$96,306 | -$81,706 | -$40,106 | -$17,806 | +$7,065 | +$17,731 | +$15,170 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -57.0% | -55.1% | -53.0% | -47.4% | -42.8% | -40.4% | -35.5% | -30.1% | -14.8% | -6.6% | +2.6% | +6.5% | +5.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $234K | $235K | $231K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $329K | $362K | $384K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$234K to $329K
34.3% of median
Long-horizon band
$231K to $384K
53.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin-Pearland | $260K | $286K | +9.9% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 661502) | $272K | $302K | +11.1% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 661501) | $276K | $306K | +11.0% | |
| Brazosport | $275K | $300K | +9.3% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 661601) | $272K | $294K | +8.2% | |
| Lake Jackson | $269K | $288K | +7.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin-Pearland | $260K | $286K | +9.9% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660615) | $297K | $357K | +20.1% | |
| Pearland | $334K | $397K | +18.9% | |
| Angleton | $399K | $466K | +16.7% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660707) | $342K | $397K | +16.0% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660501) | $368K | $420K | +14.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alvin-Pearland | $260K | $286K | $153K | |
| Clute | $154K | $163K | $86K | |
| Alvin-Pearland | $165K | $175K | $86K | |
| Alvin | $158K | $167K | $85K | |
| Brazosport | $146K | $162K | $67K | |
| Freeport | $127K | $138K | $50K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
