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Brazoria, TX · ZIP 77515 · Census Tract 48039663100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$404K
Downside (P10)
$336K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$466K
+15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$624K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $208K | $230K | $227K | $244K | $243K | $237K | $253K | $325K | $372K | $395K | $404K | $424K | $438K | $466K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$195,793 | -$173,393 | -$176,593 | -$159,693 | -$160,293 | -$166,393 | -$150,893 | -$78,793 | -$32,093 | -$8,493 | +$20,314 | +$34,553 | +$61,993 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -48.5% | -43.0% | -43.7% | -39.6% | -39.7% | -41.2% | -37.4% | -19.5% | -7.9% | -2.1% | +5.0% | +8.6% | +15.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $338K | $346K | $336K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $504K | $559K | $624K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$338K to $504K
39.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$336K to $624K
61.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angleton | $399K | $466K | +16.7% | |
| Pearland (Tract 660301) | $418K | $478K | +14.2% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660706) | $387K | $437K | +12.9% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660708) | $406K | $442K | +8.9% | |
| Pearland (Tract 660607) | $407K | $438K | +7.7% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660704) | $421K | $433K | +3.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angleton | $399K | $466K | +16.7% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660615) | $297K | $357K | +20.1% | |
| Pearland (Tract 660806) | $334K | $397K | +18.9% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660707) | $342K | $397K | +16.0% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660501) | $368K | $420K | +14.4% | |
| Pearland (Tract 660301) | $418K | $478K | +14.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angleton | $399K | $466K | $288K | |
| Clute | $154K | $163K | $86K | |
| Alvin-Pearland | $165K | $175K | $86K | |
| Alvin | $158K | $167K | $85K | |
| Brazosport | $146K | $162K | $67K | |
| Freeport | $127K | $138K | $50K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Brazoria, TX · ZIP 77515 · Census Tract 48039663100 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$404K
Downside (P10)
$336K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$466K
+15% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$624K
+54% by 2030
Base case: +15% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +54%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $208K | $230K | $227K | $244K | $243K | $237K | $253K | $325K | $372K | $395K | $404K | $424K | $438K | $466K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$195,793 | -$173,393 | -$176,593 | -$159,693 | -$160,293 | -$166,393 | -$150,893 | -$78,793 | -$32,093 | -$8,493 | +$20,314 | +$34,553 | +$61,993 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -48.5% | -43.0% | -43.7% | -39.6% | -39.7% | -41.2% | -37.4% | -19.5% | -7.9% | -2.1% | +5.0% | +8.6% | +15.4% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $338K | $346K | $336K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $504K | $559K | $624K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$338K to $504K
39.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$336K to $624K
61.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angleton | $399K | $466K | +16.7% | |
| Pearland (Tract 660301) | $418K | $478K | +14.2% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660706) | $387K | $437K | +12.9% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660708) | $406K | $442K | +8.9% | |
| Pearland (Tract 660607) | $407K | $438K | +7.7% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660704) | $421K | $433K | +3.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angleton | $399K | $466K | +16.7% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660615) | $297K | $357K | +20.1% | |
| Pearland (Tract 660806) | $334K | $397K | +18.9% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660707) | $342K | $397K | +16.0% | |
| Alvin-Pearland (Tract 660501) | $368K | $420K | +14.4% | |
| Pearland (Tract 660301) | $418K | $478K | +14.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angleton | $399K | $466K | $288K | |
| Clute | $154K | $163K | $86K | |
| Alvin-Pearland | $165K | $175K | $86K | |
| Alvin | $158K | $167K | $85K | |
| Brazosport | $146K | $162K | $67K | |
| Freeport | $127K | $138K | $50K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
