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Jefferson, TX · ZIP 77627 · Census Tract 48245011001 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$189K
Downside (P10)
$166K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$200K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$278K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $135K | $132K | $133K | $137K | $130K | $130K | $143K | $160K | $174K | $183K | $189K | $191K | $195K | $200K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$53,982 | -$56,882 | -$55,882 | -$51,582 | -$58,482 | -$58,382 | -$45,982 | -$28,782 | -$14,582 | -$5,382 | +$1,761 | +$5,872 | +$11,061 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -28.6% | -30.1% | -29.6% | -27.3% | -31.0% | -30.9% | -24.4% | -15.2% | -7.7% | -2.9% | +0.9% | +3.1% | +5.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $168K | $173K | $166K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $230K | $246K | $278K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$168K to $230K
32.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$166K to $278K
55.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nederland | $187K | $200K | +6.9% | |
| Beaumont (Tract 000309) | $192K | $209K | +9.0% | |
| Beaumont (Tract 011700) | $182K | $198K | +8.7% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 011102) | $194K | $207K | +6.5% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006900) | $182K | $191K | +4.8% | |
| Nederland | $193K | $198K | +3.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nederland | $187K | $200K | +6.9% | |
| Beaumont | $133K | $155K | +16.4% | |
| Nome-China | $212K | $245K | +15.9% | |
| Sabine Pass | $201K | $233K | +15.8% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 007100) | $121K | $139K | +15.2% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 011800) | $86K | $99K | +15.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nederland | $187K | $200K | $112K | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006700) | $73K | $78K | $41K | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006500) | $65K | $68K | $41K | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002000) | $79K | $85K | $39K | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002400) | $85K | $89K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Jefferson, TX · ZIP 77627 · Census Tract 48245011001 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$189K
Downside (P10)
$166K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$200K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$278K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 69% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $135K | $132K | $133K | $137K | $130K | $130K | $143K | $160K | $174K | $183K | $189K | $191K | $195K | $200K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$53,982 | -$56,882 | -$55,882 | -$51,582 | -$58,482 | -$58,382 | -$45,982 | -$28,782 | -$14,582 | -$5,382 | +$1,761 | +$5,872 | +$11,061 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -28.6% | -30.1% | -29.6% | -27.3% | -31.0% | -30.9% | -24.4% | -15.2% | -7.7% | -2.9% | +0.9% | +3.1% | +5.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $168K | $173K | $166K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $230K | $246K | $278K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. Near-term ranges are tighter, but uncertainty widens meaningfully further out.
Near-term band
$168K to $230K
32.6% of median
Long-horizon band
$166K to $278K
55.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nederland | $187K | $200K | +6.9% | |
| Beaumont (Tract 000309) | $192K | $209K | +9.0% | |
| Beaumont (Tract 011700) | $182K | $198K | +8.7% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 011102) | $194K | $207K | +6.5% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006900) | $182K | $191K | +4.8% | |
| Nederland | $193K | $198K | +3.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nederland | $187K | $200K | +6.9% | |
| Beaumont | $133K | $155K | +16.4% | |
| Nome-China | $212K | $245K | +15.9% | |
| Sabine Pass | $201K | $233K | +15.8% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 007100) | $121K | $139K | +15.2% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 011800) | $86K | $99K | +15.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nederland | $187K | $200K | $112K | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006700) | $73K | $78K | $41K | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006500) | $65K | $68K | $41K | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002000) | $79K | $85K | $39K | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002400) | $85K | $89K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
