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Jefferson, TX · ZIP 77701 · Census Tract 48245011700 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$186K
Downside (P10)
$149K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$198K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$257K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $65K | $63K | $61K | $47K | $40K | $58K | $50K | $123K | $144K | $180K | $186K | $188K | $198K | $198K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$120,596 | -$122,796 | -$125,096 | -$138,396 | -$145,196 | -$127,996 | -$135,996 | -$62,196 | -$41,596 | -$5,596 | +$1,935 | +$12,045 | +$12,466 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -65.0% | -66.2% | -67.4% | -74.6% | -78.2% | -69.0% | -73.3% | -33.5% | -22.4% | -3.0% | +1.0% | +6.5% | +6.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $157K | $151K | $149K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $235K | $246K | $257K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$157K to $235K
41.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$149K to $257K
54.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beaumont | $182K | $198K | +8.7% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 011205) | $182K | $199K | +9.7% | |
| Beaumont | $192K | $209K | +9.0% | |
| Nederland (Tract 011001) | $187K | $200K | +6.9% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006900) | $182K | $191K | +4.8% | |
| Nederland (Tract 011002) | $193K | $198K | +3.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beaumont | $182K | $198K | +8.7% | |
| Beaumont | $133K | $155K | +16.4% | |
| Nome-China | $212K | $245K | +15.9% | |
| Sabine Pass | $201K | $233K | +15.8% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 007100) | $121K | $139K | +15.2% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 011800) | $86K | $99K | +15.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beaumont | $182K | $198K | $108K | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006700) | $73K | $78K | $41K | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006500) | $65K | $68K | $41K | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002000) | $79K | $85K | $39K | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002400) | $85K | $89K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Jefferson, TX · ZIP 77701 · Census Tract 48245011700 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$186K
Downside (P10)
$149K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$198K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$257K
+38% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +38%. The model forecasts this with 70% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $65K | $63K | $61K | $47K | $40K | $58K | $50K | $123K | $144K | $180K | $186K | $188K | $198K | $198K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$120,596 | -$122,796 | -$125,096 | -$138,396 | -$145,196 | -$127,996 | -$135,996 | -$62,196 | -$41,596 | -$5,596 | +$1,935 | +$12,045 | +$12,466 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -65.0% | -66.2% | -67.4% | -74.6% | -78.2% | -69.0% | -73.3% | -33.5% | -22.4% | -3.0% | +1.0% | +6.5% | +6.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $157K | $151K | $149K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $235K | $246K | $257K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$157K to $235K
41.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$149K to $257K
54.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beaumont | $182K | $198K | +8.7% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 011205) | $182K | $199K | +9.7% | |
| Beaumont | $192K | $209K | +9.0% | |
| Nederland (Tract 011001) | $187K | $200K | +6.9% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006900) | $182K | $191K | +4.8% | |
| Nederland (Tract 011002) | $193K | $198K | +3.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beaumont | $182K | $198K | +8.7% | |
| Beaumont | $133K | $155K | +16.4% | |
| Nome-China | $212K | $245K | +15.9% | |
| Sabine Pass | $201K | $233K | +15.8% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 007100) | $121K | $139K | +15.2% | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 011800) | $86K | $99K | +15.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beaumont | $182K | $198K | $108K | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006700) | $73K | $78K | $41K | |
| Port Arthur (Tract 006500) | $65K | $68K | $41K | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002000) | $79K | $85K | $39K | |
| Beaumont (Tract 002400) | $85K | $89K | $38K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
