Stephens, TX · Census Tract 48429160004 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$686K
Downside (P10)
$241K
-65% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$546K
-20% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.02M
+49% by 2030
Base case: -20% by 2030, with a forecast range from -65% to +49%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar Stephens markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $686K | $675K | $599K | $544K | $546K |
| YoY Change | -1.6% | -11.3% | -9.1% | +0.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $392K | $290K | $236K | $241K | |
| Upside (P90) | $999K | $1.0M | $998K | $1.0M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$497K to $930K
63.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$241K to $1.02M
143.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breckenridge South area | $689K | $582K | -15.4% |
| Breckenridge South area | $682K | $590K | -13.5% |
| Breckenridge South area | $691K | $629K | -9.0% |
| Breckenridge South area | $699K | $603K | -13.7% |
| Breckenridge South area | $645K | $597K | -7.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breckenridge South area | $645K | $597K | -7.4% |
| Breckenridge South area | $691K | $629K | -9.0% |
| Breckenridge South area | $628K | $566K | -9.8% |
| Breckenridge South area | $682K | $590K | -13.5% |
| Breckenridge South area | $699K | $603K | -13.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breckenridge South area | $628K | $566K | $728K |
| Breckenridge South area | $645K | $597K | $750K |
| Breckenridge South area | $682K | $590K | $832K |
| Breckenridge South area | $699K | $603K | $842K |
| Breckenridge South area | $689K | $582K | $901K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources