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Stephens, TX · Census Tract 48429680005 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$682K
Downside (P10)
$243K
-64% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$590K
-13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.08M
+58% by 2030
Base case: -13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -64% to +58%. The model forecasts this with 22% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $682K | $683K | $608K | $556K | $590K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$404 | -$74,578 | -$126,603 | -$91,747 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +0.1% | -10.9% | -18.6% | -13.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $370K | $300K | $253K | $243K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $984K | $1.0M | $994K | $1.1M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$370K to $984K
90.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$243K to $1.1M
141.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680005 | $682K | $590K | -13.5% | |
| Stephens (Tract 640003) | $645K | $597K | -7.4% | |
| Stephens (Tract 240005) | $691K | $629K | -9.0% | |
| Stephens (Tract 040001) | $699K | $603K | -13.7% | |
| Stephens (Tract 080003) | $689K | $582K | -15.4% | |
| Stephens (Tract 160004) | $686K | $546K | -20.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680005 | $682K | $590K | -13.5% | |
| Breckenridge South area | $200K | $220K | +10.1% | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950200) | $90K | $94K | +4.9% | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950300) | $68K | $70K | +2.3% | |
| Stephens (Tract 640003) | $645K | $597K | -7.4% | |
| Stephens (Tract 240005) | $691K | $629K | -9.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680005 | $682K | $590K | $832K | |
| Stephens (Tract 640003) | $645K | $597K | $750K | |
| Stephens (Tract 960000) | $628K | $566K | $728K | |
| Breckenridge South area | $200K | $220K | $128K | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950200) | $90K | $94K | $48K | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950300) | $68K | $70K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Stephens, TX · Census Tract 48429680005 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$682K
Downside (P10)
$243K
-64% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$590K
-13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.08M
+58% by 2030
Base case: -13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -64% to +58%. The model forecasts this with 22% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $682K | $683K | $608K | $556K | $590K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$404 | -$74,578 | -$126,603 | -$91,747 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +0.1% | -10.9% | -18.6% | -13.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $370K | $300K | $253K | $243K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $984K | $1.0M | $994K | $1.1M |
The upside and downside bands are unusually far apart. Treat the median path as one plausible case rather than a tight estimate.
Near-term band
$370K to $984K
90.0% of median
Long-horizon band
$243K to $1.1M
141.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680005 | $682K | $590K | -13.5% | |
| Stephens (Tract 640003) | $645K | $597K | -7.4% | |
| Stephens (Tract 240005) | $691K | $629K | -9.0% | |
| Stephens (Tract 040001) | $699K | $603K | -13.7% | |
| Stephens (Tract 080003) | $689K | $582K | -15.4% | |
| Stephens (Tract 160004) | $686K | $546K | -20.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680005 | $682K | $590K | -13.5% | |
| Breckenridge South area | $200K | $220K | +10.1% | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950200) | $90K | $94K | +4.9% | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950300) | $68K | $70K | +2.3% | |
| Stephens (Tract 640003) | $645K | $597K | -7.4% | |
| Stephens (Tract 240005) | $691K | $629K | -9.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 680005 | $682K | $590K | $832K | |
| Stephens (Tract 640003) | $645K | $597K | $750K | |
| Stephens (Tract 960000) | $628K | $566K | $728K | |
| Breckenridge South area | $200K | $220K | $128K | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950200) | $90K | $94K | $48K | |
| Breckenridge North (Tract 950300) | $68K | $70K | $36K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
