What is the home price forecast for East Bernard?

Homecastr forecasts East Bernard median home values at $308,685 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 5.4%.

How confident is the East Bernard forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $261,912 (downside) to $452,768 (upside), with a spread of 59% of median.

East Bernard Home Price Forecast

Wharton, TX · ZIP 77435 · Census Tract 48481740100 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$309K

Downside (P10)

$262K

-15% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$325K

+5% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$453K

+47% by 2030

Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +47%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar Wharton markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2026	2027	2028	2029
Median Value	$125K	$127K	$136K	$150K	$158K	$167K	$178K	$223K	$278K	$305K	$309K	$316K	$326K	$325K
YoY Change		+2.2%	+6.7%	+10.3%	+5.7%	+5.4%	+6.6%	+25.3%	+24.7%	+9.8%	+1.1%	+2.2%	+3.3%	-0.2%
Downside (P10)												$271K	$282K	$262K
Upside (P90)												$396K	$432K	$453K

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight and remain tight through the full horizon.

1-Year Spread

$271K to $396K

39.3% of median

5-Year Spread

$262K to $453K

58.7% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +5.4% · Spread: 59%

·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
East Bernard	$310K	$325K	+5.1%
El Campo	$252K	$290K	+15.3%
El Campo	$245K	$275K	+12.2%
Louise	$214K	$228K	+6.2%
Wharton	$199K	$230K	+15.8%
Wharton	$177K	$183K	+3.1%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
East Bernard	$310K	$325K	+5.1%
Wharton	$199K	$230K	+15.8%
El Campo	$252K	$290K	+15.3%
El Campo	$245K	$275K	+12.2%
El Campo	$161K	$180K	+11.4%
El Campo	$98K	$108K	+10.5%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
East Bernard	$310K	$325K	$191K
El Campo	$161K	$180K	$86K
El Campo	$98K	$108K	$89K
Wharton	$177K	$183K	$91K
Wharton	$137K	$145K	$92K
El Campo	$157K	$166K	$97K

Location

East Bernard on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).