Fauquier, VA · ZIP 20186 · Census Tract 51061930305 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$531K
Downside (P10)
$441K
-17% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$547K
+3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$776K
+46% by 2030
Base case: +3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -17% to +46%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar Fauquier markets.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $371K | $386K | $442K | $459K | $501K | $531K | $540K | $543K | $547K | $519K |
| YoY Change | +4.2% | +14.4% | +3.8% | +9.2% | +6.1% | +1.7% | +0.6% | +0.7% | -5.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $442K | $453K | $441K | $455K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $686K | $737K | $776K | $583K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight and remain tight through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$442K to $686K
45.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$455K to $583K
24.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall · Warrenton · (Tract 9303.5) | $508K | $547K | +7.8% | |
| Marshall | $521K | $578K | +11.1% | |
| Center area | $514K | $583K | +13.6% | |
| Marshall | $552K | $577K | +4.5% | |
| Cedar Run | $494K | $558K | +13.1% | |
| Cedar Run | $574K | $600K | +4.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall · Warrenton · (Tract 9303.5) | $508K | $547K | +7.8% | |
| Lee | $339K | $399K | +17.6% | |
| Center area | $514K | $583K | +13.6% | |
| Cedar Run | $494K | $558K | +13.1% | |
| Scott | $760K | $859K | +13.0% | |
| Scott | $878K | $978K | +11.4% |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.