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Fauquier, VA · ZIP 20186 · Census Tract 51061930306 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$525K
Downside (P10)
$454K
-13% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$578K
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$845K
+61% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -13% to +61%. The model forecasts this with 63% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $420K | $396K | $502K | $501K | $505K | $525K | $552K | $568K | $578K | $527K |
| YoY Change | -5.9% | +27.0% | -0.3% | +0.8% | +3.9% | +5.3% | +2.8% | +1.8% | -8.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $469K | $468K | $454K | $463K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $694K | $800K | $845K | $593K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$469K to $694K
40.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$463K to $593K
24.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall · Warrenton · (Tract 9303.6) | $521K | $578K | +11.1% | |
| Center area | $514K | $583K | +13.6% | |
| Cedar Run (Tract 930404) | $494K | $558K | +13.1% | |
| Cedar Run (Tract 930705) | $485K | $540K | +11.3% | |
| Marshall (Tract 930305) | $508K | $547K | +7.8% | |
| Marshall (Tract 930206) | $552K | $577K | +4.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall · Warrenton · (Tract 9303.6) | $521K | $578K | +11.1% | |
| Lee | $339K | $399K | +17.6% | |
| Center area | $514K | $583K | +13.6% | |
| Cedar Run | $494K | $558K | +13.1% | |
| Scott (Tract 930304) | $760K | $859K | +13.0% | |
| Scott (Tract 930102) | $878K | $978K | +11.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall · Warrenton · (Tract 9303.6) | $521K | $578K | $390K | |
| Marshall | $552K | $577K | $293K | |
| Cedar Run | $485K | $540K | $280K | |
| Lee (Tract 930706) | $339K | $399K | $247K | |
| Lee (Tract 930707) | $469K | $492K | $245K | |
| Lee (Tract 930703) | $459K | $487K | $245K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.