Virginia Beach, VA · ZIP 23453 · Census Tract 51810046018 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$286K
Downside (P10)
$247K
-14% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$298K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$432K
+51% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -14% to +51%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar Virginia Beach markets.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $205K | $213K | $236K | $263K | $272K | $286K | $296K | $308K | $298K |
| YoY Change | +4.0% | +10.8% | +11.4% | +3.2% | +5.1% | +3.6% | +3.9% | -3.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $249K | $250K | $247K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $364K | $410K | $432K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$249K to $364K
38.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$247K to $432K
61.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23453 · (Tract 460.18) | $281K | $298K | +6.1% | |
| Virginia Beach | $287K | $324K | +13.0% | |
| Virginia Beach | $288K | $337K | +17.1% | |
| Virginia Beach | $282K | $312K | +10.9% | |
| Virginia Beach | $280K | $318K | +13.7% | |
| Virginia Beach | $279K | $307K | +9.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23453 · (Tract 460.18) | $281K | $298K | +6.1% | |
| Virginia Beach | $529K | $634K | +20.0% | |
| Virginia Beach | $406K | $480K | +18.2% | |
| Virginia Beach | $313K | $368K | +17.5% | |
| Virginia Beach | $288K | $337K | +17.1% | |
| Virginia Beach | $371K | $432K | +16.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Beach · 23453 · (Tract 460.18) | $281K | $298K | $184K | |
| Virginia Beach | $186K | $194K | $100K | |
| Virginia Beach | $226K | $236K | $112K | |
| Virginia Beach | $254K | $261K | $118K | |
| Virginia Beach | $244K | $268K | $123K | |
| Virginia Beach | $245K | $264K | $135K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.