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Skagit, WA · ZIP 98274 · Census Tract 53057951200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$694K
Downside (P10)
$611K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$775K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$961K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $373K | $380K | $379K | $403K | $403K | $451K | $479K | $560K | $625K | $650K | $694K | $713K | $737K | $775K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$320,715 | -$313,815 | -$314,315 | -$290,615 | -$290,815 | -$242,115 | -$214,615 | -$133,515 | -$69,015 | -$43,115 | +$19,479 | +$43,858 | +$81,164 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -46.2% | -45.2% | -45.3% | -41.9% | -41.9% | -34.9% | -30.9% | -19.3% | -10.0% | -6.2% | +2.8% | +6.3% | +11.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $618K | $603K | $611K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $857K | $909K | $961K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$618K to $857K
33.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$611K to $961K
45.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Cavanaugh | $673K | $775K | +15.1% | |
| Bay View | $677K | $764K | +12.8% | |
| Bow (Tract 950802) | $718K | $804K | +11.9% | |
| Bow (Tract 950803) | $687K | $755K | +9.8% | |
| Anacortes (Tract 940700) | $676K | $719K | +6.5% | |
| Anacortes (Tract 940401) | $705K | $740K | +4.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Cavanaugh | $673K | $775K | +15.1% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952500) | $433K | $509K | +17.4% | |
| Anacortes (Tract 940301) | $806K | $946K | +17.3% | |
| Anacortes (Tract 940402) | $608K | $696K | +14.4% | |
| Skagit | $455K | $520K | +14.3% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952200) | $436K | $497K | +14.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Cavanaugh | $673K | $775K | $350K | |
| Sedro-Woolley | $411K | $444K | $242K | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952303) | $461K | $494K | $232K | |
| Lyman-Hamilton | $547K | $599K | $227K | |
| Swinomish Reservation | $484K | $526K | $209K | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952404) | $288K | $317K | $161K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Skagit, WA · ZIP 98274 · Census Tract 53057951200 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$694K
Downside (P10)
$611K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$775K
+12% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$961K
+39% by 2030
Base case: +12% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +39%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $373K | $380K | $379K | $403K | $403K | $451K | $479K | $560K | $625K | $650K | $694K | $713K | $737K | $775K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$320,715 | -$313,815 | -$314,315 | -$290,615 | -$290,815 | -$242,115 | -$214,615 | -$133,515 | -$69,015 | -$43,115 | +$19,479 | +$43,858 | +$81,164 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -46.2% | -45.2% | -45.3% | -41.9% | -41.9% | -34.9% | -30.9% | -19.3% | -10.0% | -6.2% | +2.8% | +6.3% | +11.7% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $618K | $603K | $611K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $857K | $909K | $961K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$618K to $857K
33.4% of median
Long-horizon band
$611K to $961K
45.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Cavanaugh | $673K | $775K | +15.1% | |
| Bay View | $677K | $764K | +12.8% | |
| Bow (Tract 950802) | $718K | $804K | +11.9% | |
| Bow (Tract 950803) | $687K | $755K | +9.8% | |
| Anacortes (Tract 940700) | $676K | $719K | +6.5% | |
| Anacortes (Tract 940401) | $705K | $740K | +4.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Cavanaugh | $673K | $775K | +15.1% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952500) | $433K | $509K | +17.4% | |
| Anacortes (Tract 940301) | $806K | $946K | +17.3% | |
| Anacortes (Tract 940402) | $608K | $696K | +14.4% | |
| Skagit | $455K | $520K | +14.3% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952200) | $436K | $497K | +14.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lake Cavanaugh | $673K | $775K | $350K | |
| Sedro-Woolley | $411K | $444K | $242K | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952303) | $461K | $494K | $232K | |
| Lyman-Hamilton | $547K | $599K | $227K | |
| Swinomish Reservation | $484K | $526K | $209K | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952404) | $288K | $317K | $161K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
