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Skagit, WA · Census Tract 53057280008 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$455K
Downside (P10)
$318K
-30% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$567K
+25% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$929K
+104% by 2030
Base case: +25% by 2030, with a forecast range from -30% to +104%. The model forecasts this with 41% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $455K | $501K | $497K | $520K | $567K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$45,566 | +$41,486 | +$64,955 | +$111,833 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +10.0% | +9.1% | +14.3% | +24.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $343K | $312K | $298K | $318K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $696K | $761K | $853K | $929K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$343K to $696K
70.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$318K to $929K
107.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 280008 | $455K | $567K | +24.6% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952500) | $442K | $509K | +15.1% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952401) | $445K | $495K | +11.2% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952200) | $454K | $497K | +9.4% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952303) | $463K | $480K | +3.8% | |
| East Skagit | $453K | $453K | +0.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 280008 | $455K | $567K | +24.6% | |
| Skagit | $539K | $650K | +20.6% | |
| Anacortes | $821K | $946K | +15.2% | |
| Mount Vernon | $442K | $509K | +15.1% | |
| Lake Cavanaugh | $694K | $775K | +11.7% | |
| Bay View | $685K | $764K | +11.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 280008 | $455K | $567K | $612K | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952304) | $550K | $572K | $131K | |
| East Skagit | $453K | $453K | $113K | |
| Sedro-Woolley (Tract 951502) | $482K | $489K | $112K | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952303) | $463K | $480K | $112K | |
| Sedro-Woolley (Tract 951400) | $412K | $427K | $93K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Skagit, WA · Census Tract 53057280008 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$455K
Downside (P10)
$318K
-30% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$567K
+25% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$929K
+104% by 2030
Base case: +25% by 2030, with a forecast range from -30% to +104%. The model forecasts this with 41% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $455K | $501K | $497K | $520K | $567K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$45,566 | +$41,486 | +$64,955 | +$111,833 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +10.0% | +9.1% | +14.3% | +24.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $343K | $312K | $298K | $318K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $696K | $761K | $853K | $929K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. Short-term confidence is usable, but the farther-out range broadens significantly.
Near-term band
$343K to $696K
70.5% of median
Long-horizon band
$318K to $929K
107.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 280008 | $455K | $567K | +24.6% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952500) | $442K | $509K | +15.1% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952401) | $445K | $495K | +11.2% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952200) | $454K | $497K | +9.4% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952303) | $463K | $480K | +3.8% | |
| East Skagit | $453K | $453K | +0.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 280008 | $455K | $567K | +24.6% | |
| Skagit | $539K | $650K | +20.6% | |
| Anacortes | $821K | $946K | +15.2% | |
| Mount Vernon | $442K | $509K | +15.1% | |
| Lake Cavanaugh | $694K | $775K | +11.7% | |
| Bay View | $685K | $764K | +11.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 280008 | $455K | $567K | $612K | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952304) | $550K | $572K | $131K | |
| East Skagit | $453K | $453K | $113K | |
| Sedro-Woolley (Tract 951502) | $482K | $489K | $112K | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952303) | $463K | $480K | $112K | |
| Sedro-Woolley (Tract 951400) | $412K | $427K | $93K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
