County 06283, CA · Census Tract 06283160004 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$3.63M
Downside (P10)
$1.66M
-54% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.46M
-32% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$3.10M
-15% by 2030
Base case: -32% by 2030, with a forecast range from -54% to -15%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 06283 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $3.6M | $3.5M | $3.0M | $2.6M | $2.5M |
| YoY Change | -4.6% | -13.4% | -14.8% | -4.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $2.6M | $2.2M | $1.8M | $1.7M | |
| Upside (P90) | $4.0M | $3.6M | $3.1M | $3.1M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$2.91M to $3.93M
28.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.66M to $3.10M
58.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 880009 | $3.65M | $2.77M | -24.2% |
| Tract 760006 | $3.52M | $2.34M | -33.5% |
| Tract 600001 | $3.29M | $2.27M | -31.0% |
| Tract 960000 | $4.19M | $2.78M | -33.7% |
| Tract 840007 | $2.15M | $1.71M | -20.4% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 840007 | $2.15M | $1.71M | -20.4% |
| Tract 880009 | $3.65M | $2.77M | -24.2% |
| Tract 600001 | $3.29M | $2.27M | -31.0% |
| Tract 080003 | $6.21M | $4.24M | -31.7% |
| Tract 760006 | $3.52M | $2.34M | -33.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 960000 | $4.19M | $2.78M | $933K |
| Tract 600001 | $3.29M | $2.27M | $945K |
| Tract 760006 | $3.52M | $2.34M | $1.11M |
| Tract 840007 | $2.15M | $1.71M | $1.12M |
| Tract 880009 | $3.65M | $2.77M | $1.84M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources