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Mendocino, CA · ZIP 95490 · Census Tract 06045010601 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$601K
Downside (P10)
$532K
-11% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$645K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$846K
+41% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -11% to +41%. The model forecasts this with 73% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $314K | $379K | $451K | $531K | $569K | $601K | $601K | $635K | $645K |
| YoY Change | +20.6% | +18.9% | +17.8% | +7.1% | +5.6% | -0.0% | +5.7% | +1.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $509K | $539K | $532K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $695K | $741K | $846K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$509K to $695K
30.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$532K to $846K
48.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willits | $576K | $645K | +12.1% | |
| Redwood Valley-Potter Valley (Tract 010801) | $621K | $668K | +7.7% | |
| Redwood Valley-Potter Valley (Tract 010802) | $578K | $618K | +6.8% | |
| Fort Bragg (Tract 010300) | $649K | $648K | -0.0% | |
| Ukiah | $550K | $610K | +10.8% | |
| Fort Bragg (Tract 010400) | $549K | $588K | +7.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willits | $576K | $645K | +12.1% | |
| Willits | $376K | $430K | +14.5% | |
| Mendocino | $682K | $770K | +12.8% | |
| Ukiah (Tract 011300) | $496K | $558K | +12.5% | |
| Ukiah (Tract 011400) | $550K | $610K | +10.8% | |
| Ukiah (Tract 011700) | $670K | $740K | +10.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willits | $576K | $645K | $314K | |
| Willits (Tract 010700) | $397K | $427K | $200K | |
| Ukiah (Tract 011600) | $364K | $401K | $216K | |
| Willits (Tract 010602) | $376K | $430K | $219K | |
| Ukiah (Tract 011502) | $392K | $425K | $227K | |
| Ukiah (Tract 011501) | $503K | $536K | $243K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.