Loading forecast data...
Loading forecast data...
Mendocino, CA · ZIP 95470 · Census Tract 06045010801 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$630K
Downside (P10)
$527K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$668K
+6% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$923K
+47% by 2030
Base case: +6% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $323K | $335K | $354K | $388K | $402K | $451K | $487K | $548K | $523K | $625K | $630K | $626K | $656K | $668K |
| YoY Change | +3.9% | +5.5% | +9.8% | +3.5% | +12.1% | +8.1% | +12.5% | -4.6% | +19.6% | +0.8% | -0.6% | +4.7% | +1.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $524K | $505K | $527K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $769K | $859K | $923K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$524K to $769K
39.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$527K to $923K
59.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redwood Valley-Potter Valley | $621K | $668K | +7.7% | |
| Fort Bragg | $649K | $648K | -0.0% | |
| Ukiah | $670K | $740K | +10.4% | |
| Redwood Valley-Potter Valley | $578K | $618K | +6.8% | |
| Hopland | $682K | $745K | +9.2% | |
| Mendocino | $682K | $770K | +12.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redwood Valley-Potter Valley | $621K | $668K | +7.7% | |
| Willits (Tract 010602) | $376K | $430K | +14.5% | |
| Mendocino | $682K | $770K | +12.8% | |
| Ukiah (Tract 011300) | $496K | $558K | +12.5% | |
| Willits (Tract 010601) | $576K | $645K | +12.1% | |
| Ukiah (Tract 011400) | $550K | $610K | +10.8% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redwood Valley-Potter Valley | $621K | $668K | $396K | |
| Willits (Tract 010700) | $397K | $427K | $200K | |
| Ukiah (Tract 011600) | $364K | $401K | $216K | |
| Willits (Tract 010602) | $376K | $430K | $219K | |
| Ukiah (Tract 011502) | $392K | $425K | $227K | |
| Ukiah (Tract 011501) | $503K | $536K | $243K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.