San Mateo, CA · ZIP 94404 · Census Tract 06081608002 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.87M
Downside (P10)
$1.64M
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.05M
+10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.64M
+42% by 2030
Base case: +10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +42%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar San Mateo markets.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $908K | $957K | $1.0M | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.5M | $1.6M | $1.7M | $1.8M | $1.8M | $1.9M | $1.9M | $1.9M | $2.0M | $1.8M |
| YoY Change | +5.4% | +9.2% | +12.7% | +8.5% | +13.5% | +8.0% | +7.0% | +5.1% | +2.4% | +3.5% | +3.3% | +0.1% | +6.3% | -10.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.6M | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $2.3M | $2.4M | $2.6M | $2.1M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight and remain tight through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$1.70M to $2.28M
30.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.64M to $2.11M
26.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster City · San Mateo · (Tract 6080.2) | $1.81M | $2.05M | +13.3% | |
| North Fair Oaks | $1.84M | $2.00M | +8.5% | |
| Redwood City | $1.90M | $2.01M | +6.0% | |
| San Mateo | $1.91M | $2.19M | +14.8% | |
| Foster City | $1.92M | $2.05M | +6.3% | |
| San Mateo | $1.80M | $1.88M | +4.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster City · San Mateo · (Tract 6080.2) | $1.81M | $2.05M | +13.3% | |
| Redwood City | $2.02M | $2.51M | +23.9% | |
| Redwood City | $1.45M | $1.74M | +20.5% | |
| Half Moon Bay | $1.48M | $1.77M | +19.7% | |
| Millbrae | $1.21M | $1.43M | +18.6% | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | +18.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster City · San Mateo · (Tract 6080.2) | $1.81M | $2.05M | $1.00M | |
| Redwood City | $276K | $321K | $181K | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | $225K | |
| San Bruno | $632K | $668K | $265K | |
| San Bruno | $664K | $707K | $363K | |
| Daly City | $672K | $700K | $369K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.