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San Mateo, CA · ZIP 94404 · Census Tract 06081608300 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$2.07M
Downside (P10)
$1.63M
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.16M
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$3.07M
+48% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +48%. The model forecasts this with 64% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.8M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.1M | $2.2M | $2.2M | $2.2M | $2.1M |
| YoY Change | +8.8% | +12.2% | +13.2% | +11.9% | +3.2% | +13.0% | +9.2% | +0.0% | +0.0% | +3.7% | +5.2% | -0.7% | -0.0% | -4.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.7M | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.8M | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $2.5M | $2.9M | $3.1M | $2.3M |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$1.69M to $2.53M
38.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.80M to $2.30M
24.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster City · San Mateo · (Tract 6083) | $2.05M | $2.16M | +5.7% | |
| Belmont | $2.06M | $2.37M | +15.2% | |
| San Carlos | $2.08M | $2.35M | +13.3% | |
| Redwood City | $2.05M | $2.32M | +12.7% | |
| San Mateo | $2.07M | $2.28M | +10.2% | |
| Millbrae | $2.06M | $2.27M | +9.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster City · San Mateo · (Tract 6083) | $2.05M | $2.16M | +5.7% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610303) | $2.02M | $2.51M | +23.9% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610902) | $1.45M | $1.74M | +20.5% | |
| Half Moon Bay | $1.48M | $1.77M | +19.7% | |
| Millbrae | $1.21M | $1.43M | +18.6% | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | +18.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Foster City · San Mateo · (Tract 6083) | $2.05M | $2.16M | $1.44M | |
| Daly City | $672K | $700K | $369K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 604102) | $664K | $707K | $363K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 603801) | $632K | $668K | $265K | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | $225K | |
| Redwood City | $276K | $321K | $181K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.