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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
San Mateo, CA · ZIP 94014 · Census Tract 06081600402 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.03M
Downside (P10)
$839K
-18% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.06M
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.49M
+45% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -18% to +45%. The model forecasts this with 66% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $554K | $608K | $650K | $703K | $749K | $839K | $874K | $967K | $938K | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.1M |
| YoY Change | +9.8% | +6.9% | +8.1% | +6.6% | +12.0% | +4.1% | +10.7% | -3.0% | +6.8% | +2.4% | -0.2% | +2.4% | +1.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $858K | $817K | $839K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.5M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The confidence level stays remarkably consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$858K to $1.29M
42.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$839K to $1.49M
61.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daly City | $1.02M | $1.06M | +4.5% | |
| South San Francisco | $1.02M | $1.16M | +13.9% | |
| Daly City (Tract 601301) | $1.05M | $1.16M | +10.9% | |
| Daly City (Tract 600600) | $1.01M | $1.11M | +9.4% | |
| Redwood City | $1.02M | $1.11M | +8.7% | |
| Daly City (Tract 600701) | $1.02M | $1.07M | +5.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daly City | $1.02M | $1.06M | +4.5% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610303) | $2.02M | $2.51M | +23.9% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610902) | $1.45M | $1.74M | +20.5% | |
| Half Moon Bay | $1.48M | $1.77M | +19.7% | |
| Millbrae | $1.21M | $1.43M | +18.6% | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | +18.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daly City | $1.02M | $1.06M | $649K | |
| Daly City | $672K | $700K | $369K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 604102) | $664K | $707K | $363K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 603801) | $632K | $668K | $265K | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | $225K | |
| Redwood City | $276K | $321K | $181K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.