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San Mateo, CA · ZIP 94010 · Census Tract 06081605400 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$2.05M
Downside (P10)
$1.73M
-15% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.20M
+8% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$3.01M
+47% by 2030
Base case: +8% by 2030, with a forecast range from -15% to +47%. The model forecasts this with 68% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.4M | $1.6M | $1.7M | $1.6M | $1.8M | $1.9M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.1M | $2.2M | $2.2M |
| YoY Change | +5.5% | +13.2% | +18.0% | +3.8% | -5.0% | +10.3% | +6.9% | +5.4% | +0.0% | +2.4% | +3.2% | +2.0% | +2.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.8M | $1.8M | $1.7M | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $2.6M | $2.8M | $3.0M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are fairly tight, but the confidence interval widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.79M to $2.56M
36.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.73M to $3.01M
57.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burlingame | $2.02M | $2.20M | +9.3% | |
| San Carlos | $2.05M | $2.23M | +8.7% | |
| Menlo Park | $2.05M | $2.04M | -0.5% | |
| Foster City | $2.05M | $2.16M | +5.7% | |
| Burlingame | $2.05M | $2.22M | +8.2% | |
| Redwood City | $2.05M | $2.27M | +10.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burlingame | $2.02M | $2.20M | +9.3% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610303) | $2.02M | $2.51M | +23.9% | |
| Redwood City (Tract 610902) | $1.45M | $1.74M | +20.5% | |
| Half Moon Bay | $1.48M | $1.77M | +19.7% | |
| Millbrae | $1.21M | $1.43M | +18.6% | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | +18.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burlingame | $2.02M | $2.20M | $1.27M | |
| Redwood City | $276K | $321K | $181K | |
| South San Francisco | $324K | $384K | $225K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 603801) | $632K | $668K | $265K | |
| San Bruno (Tract 604102) | $664K | $707K | $363K | |
| Daly City | $672K | $700K | $369K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.