Santa Cruz, CA · ZIP 95076 · Census Tract 06087110302 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$691K
Downside (P10)
$534K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$740K
+7% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.05M
+53% by 2030
Base case: +7% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +53%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar Santa Cruz markets.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $571K | $611K | $607K | $654K | $664K | $691K | $708K | $724K | $740K |
| YoY Change | +7.0% | -0.7% | +7.6% | +1.6% | +4.1% | +2.4% | +2.3% | +2.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $555K | $536K | $534K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $892K | $1.0M | $1.1M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. The range stays consistent through the forecast period.
1-Year Spread
$555K to $892K
47.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$534K to $1.05M
70.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watsonville · 95076 · (Tract 1103.2) | $676K | $740K | +9.5% | |
| Santa Cruz | $701K | $811K | +15.7% | |
| Watsonville | $658K | $748K | +13.7% | |
| Watsonville | $639K | $724K | +13.3% | |
| Watsonville | $743K | $816K | +9.8% | |
| Capitola | $743K | $808K | +8.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watsonville · 95076 · (Tract 1103.2) | $676K | $740K | +9.5% | |
| Santa Cruz | $750K | $919K | +22.5% | |
| Santa Cruz | $931K | $1.10M | +17.6% | |
| Twin Lakes | $1.21M | $1.42M | +17.2% | |
| Santa Cruz | $1.61M | $1.88M | +16.4% | |
| Santa Cruz | $701K | $811K | +15.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Watsonville · 95076 · (Tract 1103.2) | $676K | $740K | $521K | |
| Watsonville | $456K | $508K | $226K | |
| Watsonville | $456K | $490K | $250K | |
| Watsonville | $564K | $641K | $316K | |
| Watsonville | $636K | $712K | $321K | |
| Santa Cruz | $701K | $811K | $377K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.