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Look up a home and see where its value may be headed over the next five years.
Hawaii, HI · ZIP 96750 · Census Tract 15001021402 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$720K
Downside (P10)
$608K
-16% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$750K
+4% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$986K
+37% by 2030
Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -16% to +37%. The model forecasts this with 72% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $390K | $402K | $434K | $456K | $477K | $499K | $511K | $598K | $608K | $707K | $720K | $734K | $762K | $750K | $734K |
| YoY Change | +3.1% | +7.9% | +5.1% | +4.6% | +4.7% | +2.3% | +17.2% | +1.6% | +16.2% | +1.9% | +2.0% | +3.8% | -1.6% | -2.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $635K | $620K | $608K | $648K | |||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $840K | $910K | $986K | $822K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$635K to $840K
28.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$648K to $822K
23.6% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Kona | $704K | $750K | +6.6% | |
| South Kohala (Tract 021706) | $697K | $814K | +16.7% | |
| South Kohala (Tract 021705) | $703K | $782K | +11.3% | |
| Papaikou-Wailea | $724K | $796K | +9.9% | |
| North Kona | $722K | $789K | +9.2% | |
| North Kohala | $697K | $701K | +0.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Kona | $704K | $750K | +6.6% | |
| South Kohala | $697K | $814K | +16.7% | |
| Hawaiian Paradise Park | $458K | $518K | +13.1% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020802) | $510K | $575K | +12.7% | |
| Keaau-Mountain View | $302K | $340K | +12.5% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020500) | $491K | $551K | +12.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Kona | $704K | $750K | $378K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021101) | $329K | $332K | $193K | |
| Keaau-Mountain View | $250K | $259K | $171K | |
| Kau | $308K | $336K | $165K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021108) | $288K | $303K | $156K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021107) | $250K | $276K | $144K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.