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Hawaii, HI · ZIP 96743 · Census Tract 15001021800 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$695K
Downside (P10)
$613K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$701K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$935K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $346K | $366K | $366K | $423K | $463K | $503K | $630K | $682K | $706K | $698K | $695K | $686K | $734K | $701K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$348,479 | -$329,079 | -$329,179 | -$271,979 | -$232,279 | -$192,079 | -$65,379 | -$13,179 | +$10,921 | +$2,821 | -$9,190 | +$38,775 | +$6,582 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -50.1% | -47.4% | -47.4% | -39.1% | -33.4% | -27.6% | -9.4% | -1.9% | +1.6% | +0.4% | -1.3% | +5.6% | +0.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $612K | $602K | $613K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $824K | $859K | $935K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$612K to $824K
30.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$613K to $935K
46.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Kohala | $697K | $701K | +0.6% | |
| South Kohala (Tract 021706) | $697K | $814K | +16.7% | |
| South Kohala (Tract 021705) | $703K | $782K | +11.3% | |
| Papaikou-Wailea | $724K | $796K | +9.9% | |
| North Kona | $722K | $789K | +9.2% | |
| South Kona | $704K | $750K | +6.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Kohala | $697K | $701K | +0.6% | |
| South Kohala | $697K | $814K | +16.7% | |
| Hawaiian Paradise Park | $458K | $518K | +13.1% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020802) | $510K | $575K | +12.7% | |
| Keaau-Mountain View | $302K | $340K | +12.5% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020500) | $491K | $551K | +12.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Kohala | $697K | $701K | $322K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021101) | $329K | $332K | $193K | |
| Keaau-Mountain View | $250K | $259K | $171K | |
| Kau | $308K | $336K | $165K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021108) | $288K | $303K | $156K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021107) | $250K | $276K | $144K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Hawaii, HI · ZIP 96743 · Census Tract 15001021800 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$695K
Downside (P10)
$613K
-12% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$701K
+1% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$935K
+35% by 2030
Base case: +1% by 2030, with a forecast range from -12% to +35%. The model forecasts this with 75% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $346K | $366K | $366K | $423K | $463K | $503K | $630K | $682K | $706K | $698K | $695K | $686K | $734K | $701K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$348,479 | -$329,079 | -$329,179 | -$271,979 | -$232,279 | -$192,079 | -$65,379 | -$13,179 | +$10,921 | +$2,821 | -$9,190 | +$38,775 | +$6,582 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -50.1% | -47.4% | -47.4% | -39.1% | -33.4% | -27.6% | -9.4% | -1.9% | +1.6% | +0.4% | -1.3% | +5.6% | +0.9% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $612K | $602K | $613K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $824K | $859K | $935K |
The predictive band is moderate for this surface over the shown horizon. The confidence profile stays fairly consistent across the horizon.
Near-term band
$612K to $824K
30.9% of median
Long-horizon band
$613K to $935K
46.0% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Kohala | $697K | $701K | +0.6% | |
| South Kohala (Tract 021706) | $697K | $814K | +16.7% | |
| South Kohala (Tract 021705) | $703K | $782K | +11.3% | |
| Papaikou-Wailea | $724K | $796K | +9.9% | |
| North Kona | $722K | $789K | +9.2% | |
| South Kona | $704K | $750K | +6.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Kohala | $697K | $701K | +0.6% | |
| South Kohala | $697K | $814K | +16.7% | |
| Hawaiian Paradise Park | $458K | $518K | +13.1% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020802) | $510K | $575K | +12.7% | |
| Keaau-Mountain View | $302K | $340K | +12.5% | |
| Hilo (Tract 020500) | $491K | $551K | +12.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Kohala | $697K | $701K | $322K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021101) | $329K | $332K | $193K | |
| Keaau-Mountain View | $250K | $259K | $171K | |
| Kau | $308K | $336K | $165K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021108) | $288K | $303K | $156K | |
| Pahoa-Kalapana (Tract 021107) | $250K | $276K | $144K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
