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Washoe, NV · ZIP 89511 · Census Tract 32031003203 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.05M
Downside (P10)
$831K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.02M
-3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.37M
+30% by 2030
Base case: -3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +30%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $470K | $524K | $607K | $668K | $713K | $809K | $877K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$578,117 | -$523,917 | -$441,017 | -$380,217 | -$334,617 | -$239,217 | -$171,117 | -$27,617 | +$8,184 | -$41,217 | -$21,796 | -$40,632 | -$30,484 | -$5,508 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -55.2% | -50.0% | -42.1% | -36.3% | -31.9% | -22.8% | -16.3% | -2.6% | +0.8% | -3.9% | -2.1% | -3.9% | -2.9% | -0.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $878K | $820K | $831K | $933K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.2M |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$878K to $1.2M
33.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$933K to $1.2M
22.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washoe Valley | $1.03M | $1.02M | -1.0% | |
| Reno Southwest (Tract 001011) | $916K | $1.05M | +14.6% | |
| Reno | $915K | $1.05M | +14.2% | |
| Incline Village (Tract 003305) | $1.11M | $1.23M | +10.4% | |
| Incline Village (Tract 003306) | $1.09M | $1.18M | +7.7% | |
| Reno Southwest (Tract 001103) | $995K | $1.01M | +1.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washoe Valley | $1.03M | $1.02M | -1.0% | |
| Reno | $443K | $544K | +22.7% | |
| Reno Southwest | $798K | $978K | +22.5% | |
| Incline Village | $1.36M | $1.61M | +18.7% | |
| Reno North | $306K | $363K | +18.7% | |
| Sparks | $401K | $474K | +18.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washoe Valley | $1.03M | $1.02M | $535K | |
| Sun Valley | $257K | $268K | $124K | |
| Reno | $226K | $243K | $120K | |
| Pyramid Lake | $69K | $74K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Washoe, NV · ZIP 89511 · Census Tract 32031003203 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$1.05M
Downside (P10)
$831K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.02M
-3% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.37M
+30% by 2030
Base case: -3% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +30%. The model forecasts this with 71% confidence.
| Year | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $470K | $524K | $607K | $668K | $713K | $809K | $877K | $1.0M | $1.1M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | $1.0M | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | -$578,117 | -$523,917 | -$441,017 | -$380,217 | -$334,617 | -$239,217 | -$171,117 | -$27,617 | +$8,184 | -$41,217 | -$21,796 | -$40,632 | -$30,484 | -$5,508 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | -55.2% | -50.0% | -42.1% | -36.3% | -31.9% | -22.8% | -16.3% | -2.6% | +0.8% | -3.9% | -2.1% | -3.9% | -2.9% | -0.5% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $878K | $820K | $831K | $933K | ||||||||||||
| Upside (P90) | $1.2M | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.2M |
The predictive band is relatively tight for this surface. Near-term outcomes are well constrained and remain comparatively stable through the forecast window.
Near-term band
$878K to $1.2M
33.8% of median
Long-horizon band
$933K to $1.2M
22.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washoe Valley | $1.03M | $1.02M | -1.0% | |
| Reno Southwest (Tract 001011) | $916K | $1.05M | +14.6% | |
| Reno | $915K | $1.05M | +14.2% | |
| Incline Village (Tract 003305) | $1.11M | $1.23M | +10.4% | |
| Incline Village (Tract 003306) | $1.09M | $1.18M | +7.7% | |
| Reno Southwest (Tract 001103) | $995K | $1.01M | +1.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washoe Valley | $1.03M | $1.02M | -1.0% | |
| Reno | $443K | $544K | +22.7% | |
| Reno Southwest | $798K | $978K | +22.5% | |
| Incline Village | $1.36M | $1.61M | +18.7% | |
| Reno North | $306K | $363K | +18.7% | |
| Sparks | $401K | $474K | +18.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washoe Valley | $1.03M | $1.02M | $535K | |
| Sun Valley | $257K | $268K | $124K | |
| Reno | $226K | $243K | $120K | |
| Pyramid Lake | $69K | $74K | $43K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.
