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Skagit, WA · ZIP 98237 · Census Tract 53057951101 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$453K
Downside (P10)
$364K
-20% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$473K
+5% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$646K
+43% by 2030
Base case: +5% by 2030, with a forecast range from -20% to +43%. The model forecasts this with 67% confidence.
| Year | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $265K | $288K | $297K | $390K | $436K | $453K | $450K | $471K | $473K | $453K |
| YoY Change | +8.9% | +3.1% | +31.0% | +11.9% | +3.9% | -0.6% | +4.5% | +0.6% | -4.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $378K | $387K | $364K | $397K | ||||||
| Upside (P90) | $561K | $592K | $646K | $509K |
The forecast range is very tight for this market, indicating strong model confidence. Near-term outcomes are constrained and remain highly predictable through the full horizon.
1-Year Spread
$378K to $561K
40.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$397K to $509K
24.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Skagit | $446K | $473K | +6.3% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952500) | $433K | $509K | +17.4% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952200) | $436K | $497K | +14.1% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952401) | $447K | $495K | +10.6% | |
| Sedro-Woolley | $471K | $519K | +10.3% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952303) | $461K | $494K | +7.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Skagit | $446K | $473K | +6.3% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952500) | $433K | $509K | +17.4% | |
| Anacortes (Tract 940301) | $806K | $946K | +17.3% | |
| Lake Cavanaugh | $673K | $775K | +15.1% | |
| Anacortes (Tract 940402) | $608K | $696K | +14.4% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952200) | $436K | $497K | +14.1% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Skagit | $446K | $473K | $282K | |
| Sedro-Woolley | $411K | $444K | $242K | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952303) | $461K | $494K | $232K | |
| Lyman-Hamilton | $547K | $599K | $227K | |
| Swinomish Reservation | $484K | $526K | $209K | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952404) | $288K | $317K | $161K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Deep dive into property-level home price forecasts for parcels in this area.