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Skagit, WA · Census Tract 53057040002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$539K
Downside (P10)
$418K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$650K
+21% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$981K
+82% by 2030
Base case: +21% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +82%. The model forecasts this with 52% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $539K | $585K | $567K | $596K | $650K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$45,792 | +$28,134 | +$56,764 | +$111,046 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +8.5% | +5.2% | +10.5% | +20.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $433K | $402K | $387K | $418K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $790K | $855K | $875K | $981K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. This usually reflects sparse local support, noisier history, or faster structural change.
Near-term band
$433K to $790K
61.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$418K to $981K
86.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 040002 | $539K | $650K | +20.6% | |
| Clear Lake | $554K | $605K | +9.2% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952403) | $528K | $568K | +7.5% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952304) | $550K | $572K | +4.0% | |
| Burlington | $519K | $537K | +3.4% | |
| Upper Samish River | $544K | $551K | +1.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 040002 | $539K | $650K | +20.6% | |
| Skagit | $455K | $567K | +24.6% | |
| Anacortes | $821K | $946K | +15.2% | |
| Mount Vernon | $442K | $509K | +15.1% | |
| Lake Cavanaugh | $694K | $775K | +11.7% | |
| Bay View | $685K | $764K | +11.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 040002 | $539K | $650K | $564K | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952304) | $550K | $572K | $131K | |
| East Skagit | $453K | $453K | $113K | |
| Sedro-Woolley (Tract 951502) | $482K | $489K | $112K | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952303) | $463K | $480K | $112K | |
| Sedro-Woolley (Tract 951400) | $412K | $427K | $93K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
Skagit, WA · Census Tract 53057040002 · 2027–2030 outlook · Forecasts as of March 2026
Current modeled value
$539K
Downside (P10)
$418K
-23% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$650K
+21% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$981K
+82% by 2030
Base case: +21% by 2030, with a forecast range from -23% to +82%. The model forecasts this with 52% confidence.
| Year | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $539K | $585K | $567K | $596K | $650K | |
| Growth $ vs 2026 | +$45,792 | +$28,134 | +$56,764 | +$111,046 | ||
| Growth % vs 2026 | +8.5% | +5.2% | +10.5% | +20.6% | ||
| Downside (P10) | $433K | $402K | $387K | $418K | ||
| Upside (P90) | $790K | $855K | $875K | $981K |
The predictive band is wider than average, so point estimates should be read with caution. This usually reflects sparse local support, noisier history, or faster structural change.
Near-term band
$433K to $790K
61.1% of median
Long-horizon band
$418K to $981K
86.7% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 040002 | $539K | $650K | +20.6% | |
| Clear Lake | $554K | $605K | +9.2% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952403) | $528K | $568K | +7.5% | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952304) | $550K | $572K | +4.0% | |
| Burlington | $519K | $537K | +3.4% | |
| Upper Samish River | $544K | $551K | +1.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 040002 | $539K | $650K | +20.6% | |
| Skagit | $455K | $567K | +24.6% | |
| Anacortes | $821K | $946K | +15.2% | |
| Mount Vernon | $442K | $509K | +15.1% | |
| Lake Cavanaugh | $694K | $775K | +11.7% | |
| Bay View | $685K | $764K | +11.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 040002 | $539K | $650K | $564K | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952304) | $550K | $572K | $131K | |
| East Skagit | $453K | $453K | $113K | |
| Sedro-Woolley (Tract 951502) | $482K | $489K | $112K | |
| Mount Vernon (Tract 952303) | $463K | $480K | $112K | |
| Sedro-Woolley (Tract 951400) | $412K | $427K | $93K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources
